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4 Catalysts That Could Boost Bitcoin

4 Catalysts That Could Boost Bitcoin

CointribuneCointribune2025/11/27 09:06
By:Cointribune
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Bitcoin has fallen more than 22 % in one month, casting doubt on its momentum. Yet, behind this pullback, several signals converge towards a possible return to the symbolic threshold of $112,000. While markets are restless, institutional and retail investors watch four key factors likely to revive the bullish trend. In a context of macroeconomic uncertainty and tension in derivative markets, the scenario of a rebound can no longer be ruled out.

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In Brief

  • Bitcoin has lost over 22 % in 30 days, but a rebound towards $112,000 remains possible according to several signals.
  • Macroeconomic factors such as inflation, Fed rates and U.S. fiscal policy could create a favorable environment.
  • The bond market, via the TIPS ETF, shows expectations of rising inflation, often correlated with a BTC price increase.
  • Bitcoin’s development by 2026 will depend on a fragile balance between macroeconomic signals and confidence in the crypto ecosystem.

The four levers of a potential rebound

While the flagship asset breaks above $86,000 despite a strong dollar , Bitcoin’s return beyond $112,000 could primarily rely on global inflationary dynamics and possible shifts in U.S. monetary policy.

A key indicator cited in the analysis is the iShares TIPS ETF, which tracks U.S. Treasury inflation-indexed bonds. This asset has resumed its upward trajectory after testing a technical support at 110.50.

Four factors could give Bitcoin fresh momentum. These levers are macroeconomic, technical, and structural alike :

  • Interest rates and monetary policy : the Federal Reserve maintaining benchmark rates above 3.5 % until 2026, anticipated by markets at 78 %, contributes to a low real interest rate environment that could favor adoption of alternative assets like Bitcoin ;
  • Inflation and the bond market : the iShares TIPS Bond ETF, reflecting inflation expectations, shows a recovery. This could signal a favorable environment for the rise of risky assets ;
  • A convergence with traditional markets : potential inclusion of Bitcoin-exposed companies in broader stock indices, especially via MSCI adjustments, could open the way to increased institutional investments;
  • Asymmetry in derivative markets : the options market shows strong imbalance favoring put options, which Julius Baer calls an “excess of bearish hedging”. Correcting this asymmetry could trigger a bullish move, especially approaching the December expiry.

These signals, though still uncertain, reveal a favorable dynamic if the four factors converge.

A bullish scenario slowed by market caution

Beyond macroeconomic considerations, internal developments within the Bitcoin ecosystem could also play a decisive role in price dynamics.

One major uncertainty concerns the position of MSCI, one of the most followed indices by global passive funds. In October, MSCI launched a consultation among investors on the opportunity to exclude from its indices some companies heavily exposed to Bitcoin, notably Strategy (MSTR).

This decision , expected on January 15, 2026, could impact nearly $9 billion of passive exposure. Michael Saylor, founder and executive chairman of MSTR, reacted by stating: “Strategy is not a fund, nor a trust, nor a holding company. We are a publicly listed company with $500 million in software activity and a unique cash strategy”.

Meanwhile, the derivatives market signals a clear lack of trader confidence. Thus, put options on BTC currently trade with a 10 % premium compared to equivalent call options.

This imbalance is interpreted as persistent pressure on market sentiment. A easing of this imbalance towards a premium of 5 % or less would be necessary to consider a return of optimism. Added to this is the imminent expiration of $22.6 billion of BTC options scheduled for December 26, an event that could provoke significant volatility or serve as a catalyst for a new accumulation phase.

The Bitcoin price oscillates between macroeconomic uncertainty and hopes for a technical recovery. While signals remain mixed, the coming weeks will be decisive in assessing the solidity of a potential rebound towards $112,000. Caution remains warranted across the market.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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