Arthur Hayes: The price discovery of the largest US tech stocks is expected to take place in the perpetual contracts market

ChainCatcher reported that BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated, "Traditional finance (TradFi) is desperately trying to maintain its dominance in stock trading. It will be very interesting to observe how they respond as stock index perpetual contracts quickly gain market recognition. The first market to dominate the perpetual contract sector will be offshore trading of U.S. stock price risk.

U.S. stocks, as well as all stocks, will eventually be tokenized. However, stock index perpetual contracts do not rely on stock tokenization to succeed. The infrastructure for stock perpetual contracts is already mature and can scale rapidly. Currently, the daily trading volume of stock index perpetual contracts has exceeded 100 millions of dollars. As traders and market makers become familiar with the contract specifications, the trading volume will soon reach several billions of dollars per day. Considering that there are often sudden global announcements after TradFi markets close every Friday, stock index perpetual contracts will become a tool for institutional and retail traders to hedge risks over the weekend. This will force major U.S. securities trading platforms to achieve 24/7 trading faster than originally planned.

I predict that by the end of 2026, price discovery for the largest U.S. tech stocks and major stock indices (such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100) will take place in retail-oriented perpetual contract markets. When financial media display the S&P 500 perpetual contract as the best pricing source, rather than CME's Globex version."