Opinion: 2025 will be the "worst year" for the crypto market, but bitcoin may reach $120,000-$150,000 in the first half of 2026

According to Odaily, IOSG founding partner Jocy posted on X stating that 2025 will be the "worst year" for the crypto market, with OG investors experiencing three waves of sell-offs. From March 2024 to November 2025, long-term holders (LTH) are expected to cumulatively sell about 1.4 million BTC (worth $121.17 billion): The first wave (end of 2023 to early 2024): ETF approval, BTC rises from $25,000 to $73,000; the second wave (end of 2024): Trump is elected, BTC surges towards $100,000; the third wave (2025): BTC remains above $100,000 for an extended period. Unlike the single explosive distribution seen in 2013, 2017, and 2021, this time features multiple sustained waves of distribution. Over the past year, BTC has been consolidating at its peak for an entire year, something that has never happened before. Since the beginning of 2024, the amount of BTC unmoved for over two years has decreased by 1.6 million (about $140 billion). However, the other side of risk is opportunity, and in terms of investment logic:

Short term (3-6 months): Fluctuation in the $87,000-$95,000 range, institutions continue to accumulate positions;

Mid term (first half of 2026): Driven by both policy and institutions, target of $120,000-$150,000;

Long term (second half of 2026): Increased volatility, depending on election results and policy continuity.