Altcoin Season Index

The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the third time this year. On top of that, the Fed announced it will purchase 40 billion dollars in Treasury bills over the next 30 days. For crypto traders, this is not just another macro headline. It is a clear shift toward easier conditions that can influence Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the broader market heading into 2026. This article breaks down what the decision means, why it matters now, and how Bitget traders can use this information. Why This Rate Cut Matters When the Fed lowers rates, a few things usually happen: ● Borrowing becomes cheaper ● Liquidity improves across markets ● The dollar tends to soften ● Investors move toward assets with higher growth potential Crypto often reacts earlier than equities when policy turns supportive. Even though volatility remains high, the direction of policy is important for long term positioning. The Fed Is Adding Liquidity The decision to buy 40 billion dollars of Treasury bills is significant. These purchases increase liquidity in the financial system and often support risk markets. More liquidity means more available capital for: ● Bitcoin and Ethereum ● Large cap altcoins ● High activity sectors like AI, layer twos, and RWAs This move is similar to past periods when easier policy supported market expansions. Why Crypto Has Not Surged Immediately Even with supportive policy, price reactions can be delayed. Here are the main reasons: 1. Recent selloffs created caution Large liquidations across multiple days pushed traders into wait and see mode. 2. The market wants confirmation Traders often wait for follow up statements and economic forecasts before taking larger positions. 3. Broader uncertainty remains Comments about overstated job gains and inflation influenced short term sentiment. Despite these factors, easier monetary policy tends to set the stage for stronger phases in crypto cycles. What This Decision Signals for 2026 If the Fed continues down this path, traders could see: ● Steady inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ● Faster recovery in altcoin sectors ● Growing interest in AI, L2, and RWA tokens ● More opportunities driven by higher volatility Macro conditions influence crypto cycles more than individual news updates. A shift toward lower rates often supports long term uptrends. What Bitget Traders Should Watch Here is the practical checklist: 1. Bitcoin dominance BTC usually responds first during macro shifts. 2. The dollar index (DXY) A weaker dollar often supports Bitcoin and Ethereum. 3. Sector rotation AI tokens, RWA projects, and layer twos tend to move early when conditions improve. 4. Fed commentary Statements about future cuts or economic projections can move markets instantly. Bitget’s spot and futures markets allow traders to monitor these changes in real time. The Bottom Line The latest rate cut and liquidity injection signal a clear shift toward easier monetary policy. Crypto may not react overnight, but these changes help form the foundation for the next phase of the market. Traders who understand the macro environment can position more effectively for the months ahead.

Sui just made its debut on Wall Street. On December 4, 2025, 21Shares launched the first-ever exchange-traded fund tied to the Sui blockchain, with the 2× Long SUI ETF (ticker: TXXS) now live on Nasdaq. Approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the leveraged fund is designed to deliver twice the daily performance of the SUI token—making it the first regulated Sui-based ETF available to U.S. investors. Unlike spot ETFs that hold crypto directly, TXXS uses derivatives to track and amplify Sui’s price movements. The launch marks a major step forward not just for 21Shares, but for the Sui ecosystem, which has quickly gained traction as one of the fastest-growing Layer-1 blockchains. With this product, retail and institutional traders alike can gain leveraged exposure to SUI through a traditional brokerage account—no wallets, private keys, or exchanges required. A First of Its Kind — and a First for Sui TXXS isn’t just Sui’s first ETF—it’s the first-ever ETF tied to Sui to launch in leveraged form. That’s a rarity in crypto space. Most major Layer-1 networks, including Ethereum and Solana, entered public markets through spot or futures-based ETFs before leveraged versions came later. With Sui, the market flipped the script. Its ETF debut delivers 2× daily price exposure right out of the gate, signaling strong issuer conviction and an appetite for amplified strategies tied to emerging chains. The timing is equally significant. Crypto ETFs are booming in 2025, with more than 70 launched so far this year and Bloomberg forecasting over 150 by year’s end. Yet, few have ventured beyond the typical BTC and ETH pairings. TXXS puts Sui on the ETF map—and fast-tracks it into the realm of regulated, mainstream-accessible digital assets. For a network that launched just two years ago, this kind of Wall Street entrance is anything but ordinary. How TXXS Works — A Primer on Leveraged Crypto Exposure TXXS is a 2× leveraged ETF, which means it’s engineered to deliver twice the daily return of the SUI token’s price movement—but only on a day-to-day basis. If SUI gains 5% in a trading session, TXXS aims to gain 10%. But if SUI drops 3%, the fund would target a 6% decline. This amplified exposure is made possible through a combination of derivatives contracts, including swaps and futures, rather than direct SUI holdings. Crucially, leveraged ETFs like TXXS reset daily, which makes them tools for short-term trading, not long-term holding. Over multiple days, compounding effects can cause the fund’s performance to diverge from exactly 2× the token’s net price change. That’s why issuers and analysts alike emphasize that leveraged products are best suited for experienced traders looking to capture short-term momentum—not passive investors hoping to ride a long-term uptrend. Still, the appeal is clear: TXXS allows exposure to Sui’s price action without requiring a crypto wallet, exchange account, or margin facility. It offers traders a simplified, regulated way to bet on SUI volatility, and for many, that accessibility outweighs the risks. “A Vote of Confidence”: Industry Applauds Sui’s ETF Launch The launch of TXXS has sparked immediate reaction from across the crypto and financial sectors. For 21Shares, the milestone reinforces its lead in bringing structured crypto products to regulated markets. “Widespread adoption of digital assets hinges on the market’s ability to offer consumers uncomplicated applications of the technology,” said Russell Barlow, CEO of 21Shares. “With this launch, 21Shares is capitalizing on one of the winners rising to the occasion and ushering in the next era of blockchain technology—one dominated by simplicity.” Sui’s leadership echoed the enthusiasm. Evan Cheng, CEO of Mysten Labs, called the listing a sign that Sui is “ready for its place in capital markets.” For Cheng and others in the Sui ecosystem, TXXS marks more than just a product debut—it’s institutional validation. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that it’s rare for an asset’s first ETF to be a leveraged one, calling TXXS “a bold move” that reflects rising confidence in Sui’s long-term positioning in the market. More Than a Milestone: TXXS Signals Maturity for the Sui Network The approval of TXXS represents more than just the launch of a new trading product—it’s a sign that the Sui ecosystem is entering a new phase of maturity. Since its launch in 2023, Sui has carved out a distinct position among Layer-1 blockchains with a focus on performance, usability, and developer experience. Its architecture supports parallel transaction execution, object-oriented smart contracts, and seamless onboarding features like Google or Face ID login. Combined with sponsored transactions that let apps cover user gas fees, Sui aims to make blockchain feel invisible to the end user. That mission is gaining traction. The network recently crossed $10 billion in 30-day DEX volume and has maintained over $180 billion in monthly stablecoin transfer volume for four straight months. Its total value locked (TVL) sits just shy of $1 billion, ranking Sui among the top 15 blockchains by ecosystem size. From DeFi protocols to gaming platforms and tokenized real-world assets, builders are finding new use cases across the Sui stack. With TXXS now trading on Nasdaq, Sui is no longer confined to the crypto-native crowd. The fund gives traditional investors a regulated, brokerage-accessible way to gain exposure to Sui’s growth—without needing a wallet or token. For the ecosystem, that means more visibility, more liquidity, and a new bridge between on-chain innovation and off-chain capital. Why TXXS Passed While Spot SUI ETFs Still Wait in Line TXXS arrives at a moment when U.S. regulators are cautiously expanding the boundaries of crypto-based investment products. Its approval is particularly notable given the SEC’s recent decision to block the launch of several proposed 3× and 5× leveraged crypto ETFs, citing concerns over portfolio structure and risk exposure. For now, the agency appears comfortable drawing the line at 2× leverage, provided the fund follows strict compliance under Rule 18f‑4 and avoids loopholes. That distinction is what gave TXXS a faster track than 21Shares’ pending spot SUI ETF. Unlike spot products, which require custodianship of the actual crypto asset and often draw more regulatory scrutiny, TXXS uses derivatives—such as swaps and futures—to simulate exposure to SUI. This structure makes it easier to meet SEC standards for market surveillance and investor protection. While the leveraged ETF is now live, the spot version remains in review, with no timeline yet for approval. Still, TXXS may help build a regulatory foundation for future Sui-based products. If the fund performs well and market interest holds, it could increase the odds that the SEC gives a green light to a spot SUI ETF next. Market Impact and the Road Ahead Sui (SUI) Price Source: CoinMarketCap The launch of TXXS comes at a pivotal time for SUI’s price action. After declining steadily through the fall—slipping from above $3.00 in September to around $1.30 in late November—the token has shown signs of a rebound. Following the ETF announcement, SUI climbed back into the $1.60–$1.70 range, marking a roughly 8% gain on the week. While the move has yet to break the broader downtrend, traders appear cautiously optimistic that the ETF could serve as a fresh catalyst. The real test, however, may come in the weeks ahead. Leveraged ETFs tend to attract active, high-frequency traders, and TXXS could bring new volatility into Sui’s market. Amplified gains are possible—but so are sharper losses on red days. If trading volume in TXXS proves strong, it may signal growing appetite for Sui exposure in traditional portfolios. If not, the fund may face the same uphill battle as other low-liquidity altcoin ETFs. Analysts agree that TXXS won’t move the market on its own, but it does offer something new: a bridge between Sui’s on-chain growth and off-chain capital. For an ecosystem pushing toward mainstream adoption, that’s a critical step—and one that could open the door for a broader suite of Sui-based financial products. What Comes Next for Sui and Crypto ETFs With TXXS now live on Nasdaq, Sui joins a small but growing group of Layer-1 networks that have made the leap into regulated financial markets. While this debut comes via a leveraged product—not a spot fund—it still marks a significant step toward broader accessibility and institutional legitimacy. Looking ahead, much will depend on market reception. If the ETF garners strong demand and trading volume, it could pave the way for more Sui-based investment vehicles, including the still-pending spot SUI ETF filed by 21Shares earlier this year. More broadly, TXXS may help validate Sui’s potential as a high-performance blockchain with staying power—not just in DeFi, but on Wall Street as well. For now, the launch offers both investors and builders something rare: a regulated, brokerage-accessible way to participate in the growth of a next-gen Layer-1. And in an industry where visibility and access are everything, that could make all the difference. Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are for informational purposes only. This article does not constitute an endorsement of any of the products and services discussed or investment, financial, or trading advice. Qualified professionals should be consulted prior to making financial decisions.

In a major step for crypto adoption, Grayscale has secured approval to launch the first U.S. Chainlink ETF on NYSE Arca. The move not only reflects shifting attitudes among regulators, but also puts Chainlink and its LINK token in the spotlight as investors weigh the product’s potential effect on price. As the new ETF prepares to make its trading debut, analysts and market-watchers are divided: will Chainlink’s ETF break the trend of weak altcoin ETF performance, or could it succumb to broader macro headwinds? Here’s what you need to know about the Chainlink ETF, recent market activity, and what’s next for LINK price predictions. Source: CoinMarketCap The First U.S. Chainlink ETF: A Landmark Approval In a significant breakthrough for crypto asset investment products, Grayscale has converted its Chainlink Trust into the first U.S.-listed Chainlink ETF, set to trade on NYSE Arca. According to regulatory filings, the approval allows Grayscale’s Chainlink ETF (ticker symbol: GLNK) to be offered under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, joining an expanding list of digital asset ETFs in U.S. markets. Chainlink serves an essential role in blockchain infrastructure, operating as a decentralized oracle network that reliably connects blockchains to external data sources. Its token, LINK, is among the world’s top 25 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. The launch follows a flurry of Grayscale activity, as similar trust-to-ETF conversions for Dogecoin, Solana, Litecoin, HBAR, and XRP have rolled out in recent weeks. Each conversion is seen not just as product expansion but as a signal that regulatory agencies, led by the SEC, are adjusting their approach to crypto markets. The SEC is expediting its approval process for such products and offering clearer compliance pathways—a notable shift from the heavy-handed regulation and enforcement actions that previously characterized the agency’s stance towards token-based investment vehicles. The ETF Landscape: Cautious Optimism after Mixed Altcoin ETF Results The Chainlink ETF’s debut comes on the heels of other notable altcoin ETFs, such as those for Solana (SOL) and XRP. While initial excitement was high, recent performance has been underwhelming: The SOL ETF, launched November 13, fell up to 18% since inception. The XRP ETF, launched November 14, experienced a more than 10% decline over the same period. This market behavior reflects shifting sentiment. The crypto market has broadly entered a risk-off phase, with waning enthusiasm for altcoin ETFs and reduced ETF-driven inflows. As liquidity thins, investors are questioning whether GLNK (the Chainlink ETF) can spark a turnaround or may follow the familiar pattern of post-launch corrections seen in other altcoin ETFs. Grayscale’s ETF Strategy and Institutional Narrative The NYSE Arca listing of the Chainlink ETF is Grayscale’s third new ETF product in just two weeks. This rapid rollout is part of a deliberate pivot to extend beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum, targeting altcoins where institutional interest is rising. Notably, the Zcash (ZEC) ETF is also in Grayscale’s pipeline, further underscoring this expansionary tactic. Industry observers have highlighted that the new regulatory openness—particularly under SEC Chair Paul Atkins—has led to more predictable listing processes and a surge in applications for blockchain-network-specific products. The message is clear: As regulation matures, crypto-based investment products are likely to proliferate in mainstream finance. Chainlink (LINK) Price: Short-Term Market Dynamics As of the ETF’s debut: LINK price: $12.09–$12.24, slightly down on the day Intraday high: $12.24 Intraday low: $11.77 Currently, short volumes for LINK/USD outweigh long positions, indicating that traders are heavily betting against the price. A critical technical trigger is $12.86—a move above this level could unleash significant short liquidations (estimated at $25 million), potentially sparking a rapid price recovery. On-Chain Signals: Exchange Supply Drops and Whale Activity Not all data are bearish. On-chain analytics show LINK’s circulating supply on exchanges has dropped to its lowest since 2020. Historically, such supply squeezes have preceded major rallies as reduced available tokens can tighten liquidity and amplify price moves if demand surges. CryptoQuant’s analysis supports the bullish case, noting that “the price does not remain low for long” after such reductions in exchange balances. At the same time, whale activity deserves attention. Blockchain tracking via Nansen has identified a large LINK holder (“whale”) with significant unrealized losses heading into ETF launch. Heavy underwater positions like this can increase the likelihood of large sell-offs, especially if ETF-triggered liquidity brings sellers into the market. The Critical 72-Hour Window For investors, the first three days after GLNK’s debut are pivotal. During this window, trading volume, ETF flows, and overall sentiment will reveal whether Chainlink ETF serves as a genuine market catalyst for LINK or struggles under the same weight of macroeconomic and market forces that have pressured other altcoin ETFs. In summary, the Chainlink price faces mixed short-term forces: Bearish: Weak preceding altcoin ETF performance, negative sentiment, and potential whale sell pressure. Bullish: Exchange supply at multi-year lows, continued whale accumulation, and new traditional market inflows via the ETF. Chainlink Price Prediction: Medium- to Long-Term Outlook Despite the uncertainty surrounding the immediate post-ETF launch period, analytical consensus forecasts potential upside for LINK over the coming year. DigitalCoinPrice projects an average LINK price of $23.81 in 2025, with potential highs up to $26.44. Other reputable sources suggest a range of $19.43–$23.87 for LINK, reflecting both technical and fundamental catalysts. Success for GLNK could build conviction among traditional investors, further shrinking available supply and creating conditions for a sustained bullish breakout. On the other hand, if broader risk-off sentiment continues to dominate crypto, even ETF-driven inflows may not suffice for a meaningful price rally in the short term. Conclusion: Chainlink ETF’s Market Role and Strategic Considerations The launch of the first U.S. Chainlink ETF on NYSE Arca stands as a landmark achievement for both Grayscale and the broader blockchain industry. This development affirms the maturing regulatory climate for crypto assets and signals increasing acceptance of altcoins in institutional portfolios. For investors, the intersection of regulatory changes, ETF launches, and evolving market dynamics demands careful attention. Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are for informational purposes only. This article does not constitute an endorsement of any of the products and services discussed or investment, financial, or trading advice. Qualified professionals should be consulted prior to making financial decisions.