Prix de Hyperbolic ProtocolHYPE

Source: OAK Research annual report. 1) The most anticipated events in 2026. - ICO and airdrop of Playmarket, airdrop of BASE, TGE on OpenSea, launch of the MegaETH mainnet #MEGA, AAVE V4 #AAVE and a mobile app (new version of the DeFi lending flagship), Season 3 of Hyperliquid #HYPE (continuation of the rewards program), switching fees in favor of token holders #UNI (fee switch in Uniswap), appointment of a new head of the Federal Reserve, inclusion of crypto ETFs in 401(k) retirement accounts, payments to Mt. Gox creditors (return of ~$9b in BTC). 2) Bitcoin is now a macro asset - 2025 was a transitionary year: BTC ended the year roughly where it started. - The 4-year cycle model no longer works. - BTC's price depends on macroeconomics and ETFs, not retail. - BTC dominance > 60% has sucked liquidity out of altcoins. 3) ETFs and DAT companies – new demand (and threat) - 200+ companies own >1,000,000 BTC (5% of the supply). - ETFs and DATs are the main channels for institutions. - Risk: a compressed premium could collapse the sector. 4) Ethereum: the technology is there, the price isn't - Ethereum's technological progress isn't driving price growth. - The transition to L2 reduced fees and ETH burn, killing the "ultrasound money" narrative. - The Ethereum Foundation reorganized. - The task for 2026 is to explain why to hold ETH. 5) Hyperliquid – winner of the year and symbol of "revenue meta" - The main hero of 2025 in DeFi. $1b+ in annual revenue, a team of 11 people. 99% of revenue is used to buy back #HYPE. - The project has caught up with major CEXs on derivatives. - A model of "AWS for liquidity" is forming. 6) The US legalizes crypto through stablecoins - The passage of the GENIUS Act gave stablecoins clear rules of the game. - Bitcoin is de facto recognized as a strategic reserve asset of the US. - Crypto is no longer a fringe topic and has become part of the financial system. - The downside: the commercialization of politics has intensified (memocoins from politicians, conflicts of interest). 7) Stablecoins – a tool for dollar expansion - #USDT and #USDC control the lion's share of the market. Stablecoin issuers have become one of the largest holders of US government bonds. - Stablecoins are a payment rail/infrastructure for tokenized assets (RWA) and DeFi. 8) RWA: tokenized government bonds – the main case for institutions - Tokenized US Treasury bonds are the most mature and fastest-growing sector of RWA. The market has grown exponentially over the past two years. - Tokenization enables compatibility with DeFi and instant settlements. - The link with TradFi is strengthening – systemic shocks will be transmitted faster. 9) Prediction markets have gone mainstream - Polymarket and Kalshi are a duopoly. Volumes have reached tens of billions. - The launch of tokens in 2026 is the main test of sustainability. 10) L2: harsh selection - Capital is concentrating with leaders (Base, Arbitrum). - Most L2s are losing TVL, activity, and token prices. - The problem is that tokens don't capture value. - The future lies in convenience and integration, not new networks. 11) Airdrops: the classic model is dead - Most tokens after an airdrop have lost 70-90% of their value. - Retroactive giveaways attract hunters, not real users, and destroy ecosystems. - Projects are moving to profit sharing, ICO mechanics, or abandoning tokens altogether. 12) Narratives for 2026: Privacy and Crypto + AI - Interest in private transactions and privacy infrastructure is returning. - The focus has shifted from tokenization models to markets for AI computation, verification, and coordination. Crypto is useful to AI as a layer for settlements, trust, and automated payments. Bittensor (#TAO) is the most mature ecosystem at the intersection of crypto and AI.

♦️Latest Market Developments & Impact Analysis 📊 Unless otherwise noted, all times are Hong Kong Time Federal Reserve Policy Impact 🏦 The Fed maintained rates at 4.25%-4.50% on December 19, while reducing 2026 rate cut expectations from 3 to 2 cuts. This hawkish pivot triggered significant crypto market volatility, with $547 million in liquidations over 24 hours - BTC accounting for $183 million and ETH for $133 million. The policy shift reflects persistent inflation concerns and signals a more cautious monetary approach. Bitcoin's Critical Juncture 📉 Bitcoin faces potential historic headwinds, having declined from $126,000 to approximately $87,000 - marking a possible fourth annual decline in its history. The $70,000 level emerges as crucial support, with institutional sentiment mixed despite the correction. However, analysts anticipate dollar devaluation pressures could eventually benefit non-sovereign assets like Bitcoin. Hyperliquid (HYPE) Token Burn Initiative 🔥 Trading at $24.69 (+1.81%), HYPE presents a compelling catalyst with Hyper Foundation's governance proposal to permanently burn over 10% of token supply through validator voting (December 21-24). This deflationary mechanism could significantly tighten supply dynamics and strengthen the tokenomics model, presenting a bullish structural development. Institutional Adoption Momentum 🚀 Despite market volatility, institutional adoption accelerates with the US approving crypto enterprises to establish national trust banks and Hong Kong exchanges listing crypto products. The Marshall Islands' crypto universal basic income initiative further demonstrates mainstream integration, supporting long-term sector legitimacy. Trading Strategy 💡 Contrarian Accumulation Play: Current market fear presents opportunity for disciplined investors. Consider dollar-cost averaging into quality assets like BTC and ETH during this correction, while monitoring HYPE's token burn outcome for potential supply shock dynamics.

All eyes are on Hyperliquid as a major supply decision reaches the finish line. $HYPE is pushing higher into the final stretch of the validator burn vote, set to conclude on Dec 24, where over 37 million tokens could be formally locked out of circulation. That potential supply reduction has brought renewed attention back to the token after months of downside pressure. Sentiment also improved after the team addressed recent insider selling concerns, helping steady confidence as price consolidates around the mid $20s range. The move feels more like stabilization than a full breakout, but it’s a notable shift in tone. If the burn is approved, $HYPE may pivot from a recovery story to a scarcity-driven narrative, though broader market fear and thin altcoin liquidity could still cap upside in the near term.

HYPERLIQUID UPDATE The Hyperliquid team says the wallet suspected of shorting $HYPE belongs to a former employee fired in Q1 2024 and is no longer connected to the project.