Solanaの‌価格SOL

great post three dogmas that celestia exploits imo: - the validating bridge is the fundamental component of a rollup (eth) - there are no competitive tensions between scaling the L1 and scaling blobs (eth) - the app is not good for the L1 unless it maximises L1 REV (sol)

由于币圈流动性堪忧，现在各路币圈 vc/liquidity fund 都正在紧锣密鼓地搞币股，找个美股的壳子反向收购（千万美金左右），然后做好叙事包装，筹钱募资，然后买币（大概率是买 eth sol bnb 之类的大alts），希望实现微策略/cricle 的“长牛”。

RT @1__of_1: The only thing worth bidding right now is Sol & $dupe

RT @joopooranski: You either adopt early or watch late. $DOG is what ETH and SOL memes were before they became narratives. But this time, i…

Over the past twelve months, Solana’s total market capitalization has told a classic “boom‐bust‐bounce” story. From a long sideways grind through mid-2024 to a late‐year surge, a sharp pullback, and a recent recovery, the chart is brimming with structural cues—Breaks of Structure (BOS), Changes of Character (CHoCH), and clearly defined supply and demand zones. Here’s a deep dive into what’s happened, what it means, and where we could be headed next. 1. Prolonged Range and Institutional Accumulation (June–October 2024) Flat-lining around the $60 B–$80 B range: For roughly five months, Solana caps traded sideways with repeated BOS and CHoCH signals around the ~$70 B “midpoint.” Equal‐highs and equal‐lows: We saw multiple EQHs in July/August and an EQL in September, marking a true equilibrium zone and suggesting big‐money accumulation under the radar. Low‐volatility buildup: Volume contracted as price oscillated, indicating that both buyers and sellers were in stealth mode, awaiting a catalyst. 2. Late‐Year Breakout and Peak Mania (November 2024–January 2025) November BOS: A clean breakout above resistance near $80 B flagged fresh institutional buying (BOS), followed by a CHoCH internal retest that held support. Parabolic ascent into December: Cap shot up to a “Strong High” zone around $140 B, driven by renewed retail hype, NFT activity on Solana, and broader market tailwinds. Overextension warning: RSI divergences and shrinking pullbacks signaled that the move was becoming stretched—classic late‐stage distribution. 3. Sharp Correction and Demand Zone Test (February–April 2025) Trend reversal BOS: Late January highs failed to hold, leading to a BOS to the downside—a clear change of regime from bullish to bearish. Dance around the “Weak Low”: By March, cap had plunged into the $45 B–$50 B “weak low” demand area. Multiple CHoCHs here hinted at bargain hunting but also carved out lower lows, underscoring seller control. Demand exhaustion & shake-out: The final swipe into ~48 B in early April flushed weak hands before a modest buying response. 4. Recovery, Distribution, and the Current Battleground (May–June 2025) Rebound to $75 B: A textbook CHoCH followed by a BOS to the upside in mid-April set the stage for a recovery back into the $70 B–$80 B resistance band. Multi‐layered supply zone: Today’s caps around $74 B sit directly under a shaded distribution area that stretches up to ~$85 B—an area defined by prior support turned resistance. Structural ambiguity: While short-term bulls will point to higher lows since April, the longer EMA still slopes slightly down, and we’ve registered another CHoCH on the daily chart in June, suggesting sellers remain active. What’s Next? 1. Bull Scenario: A sustained BOS above ~$80 B, confirmed by a daily close and retest, could open the gates toward the $100 B mid-range and eventually re-test the ~$140 B strength zone. 2. Bear Scenario: Failure under the $75 B–$80 B ceiling, especially a break below the April swing low near $65 B, would target the weak low band again and risk a test of $50 B. 3. Neutral/Range-bound: Given how finely balanced buyers and sellers appear, we could chop in the $65 B–$85 B bracket for weeks, carving out fresh supply/demand footprints before the next decisive move. Key Takeaways for Traders Respect Structural Levels: Watch the shaded zones—their historical significance means they’ll attract plenty of order flow. Follow BOS & CHoCH: These aren’t just labels—each break or change flags a shift in market psychology. Manage Risk: With such a pronounced range, position sizing and stop placement around $65 B and $85 B are critical. Solana’s market cap isn’t just a flat number; it’s a living map of sentiment shifts, from quiet accumulation through euphoric peaks and panic washes, to the tentative rebirth we’re seeing today. Whether you’re long or short, lean into the structure, respect the zones, and let the chart guide you. $SOL #marketcap