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Crypto prediction markets favor Trump in tight race with Harris

Crypto prediction markets favor Trump in tight race with Harris

BlockworksBlockworks2024/11/04 21:00
By:Blockworks

Platforms like Polymarket and Drift’s BET show higher probabilities for a Trump victory, reflecting current market sentiments


This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe .

With a day to go before the US presidential election, prediction markets give an edge to Trump over Harris. 

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On the crypto side, Polymarket gives Trump roughly 58/42, and leads in open interest. Adding to the crypto landscape, Drift Protocol’s BET platform , built on the Solana blockchain, has emerged as a notable contender. BET touts a daily trading volume of $20 million and gives Trump a 61% chance as of 11 am ET today.

Crypto prediction markets favor Trump in tight race with Harris image 0 Polymarket all-time highs in open interest. Source: Blockworks Research

Betfair Exchange , a UK-based betting platform, reports total bets amounting to 136 million pounds (about $176 million).

In the US, Kalshi , a recently legalized event futures exchange, has seen over $12 million in user bets since its launch. PredictIt , which has the candidates neck and neck, maintains a significant user base, though specific open interest figures are not publicly disclosed.

Robinhood and Interactive Brokers joined Kalshi as betting options available to US citizens after the latter two won a ruling against the CFTC to allow election outcome trading. Interactive Brokers has reported over a million contracts traded since launching its market on Oct. 3. Robinhood’s open interest numbers aren’t readily available.

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Tags
  • 0xResearch Newsletter
  • Donald Trump
  • Elections
  • Kamala Harris
  • Polymarket
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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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