-
XRP faces a potential 35% price correction, with on-chain data and technical indicators pointing to a revisit of the $1.35–$1.60 range.
-
Recent profit-taking by early investors mirrors patterns seen before the 2017 XRP market peak, raising concerns about market vulnerability.
-
According to COINOTAG, over 70% of XRP’s realized market cap has been established since late 2024, indicating a top-heavy market structure prone to sharp sell-offs.
XRP’s realized profits and SOPR metrics signal a possible 35% decline, reflecting a market structure similar to its 2017 peak and increasing downside risk.
XRP’s Profit-Taking Signals Potential Market Correction
XRP investors who acquired tokens before the November 2024 rally are currently realizing profits at an unprecedented rate of approximately $68.8 million daily, according to Glassnode data. This surge in profit-taking is reminiscent of the behavior observed during XRP’s 2017 bull cycle, where early holders capitalized on rapid price appreciation. The current realized profits exceed 300%, highlighting a significant wave of distribution as prices have tripled over a short period. Such concentrated profit realization often precedes market corrections, suggesting that XRP could be entering a phase of increased volatility and potential price retracement.
Market Structure Indicates Increased Vulnerability
More than 70% of XRP’s realized market capitalization has formed since late 2024, revealing a market heavily weighted toward newer investors. This top-heavy distribution creates a fragile market environment, historically associated with sharper sell-offs during periods of uncertainty. The concentration of holdings among recent buyers increases the likelihood of accelerated downward pressure if these investors begin to liquidate positions. This dynamic underscores the importance of monitoring on-chain metrics to anticipate potential market shifts and manage risk effectively.
SOPR and Realized Price Metrics Highlight Downside Risks
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for XRP holders in the 3 to 6-month holding period has steadily declined, indicating that recent buyers are increasingly selling at or near breakeven levels. Meanwhile, holders in the 6 to 12-month cohort maintain an average buy price of $1.35, providing a 35% downside buffer relative to current prices. With XRP trading around $2.14, this suggests that the token could experience a significant pullback toward the $1.50–$1.60 range, and potentially test the $1.35 support level. This scenario aligns with the descending triangle pattern observed on XRP’s weekly chart, a bearish technical formation that often signals trend reversals during uptrends.
Technical Analysis Supports Bearish Outlook but Allows for Reversal
The descending triangle pattern, combined with the realized price floor near $1.30, presents a clear downside target for XRP if selling pressure intensifies. However, a strong rebound from the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) could invalidate this bearish setup. Such a bounce would signal renewed buying interest and potentially pave the way for XRP to reclaim higher price levels, including a move toward $3 or beyond. Traders and investors should watch these key technical levels closely, as they will likely dictate XRP’s near-term trajectory.
Conclusion
XRP’s current on-chain and technical indicators suggest a heightened risk of a 35% price correction, driven by concentrated profit-taking and a top-heavy market structure. While the descending triangle pattern and SOPR metrics point to potential downside toward the $1.35–$1.60 range, a decisive bounce from the 50-week EMA could alter this outlook. Market participants are advised to monitor these critical levels and on-chain data closely to navigate the evolving risk landscape effectively.
