Bitcoin (BTC) has once again surged past $105,000, propelled by the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East; however, an even more noteworthy story lies beneath the surface: the market has absorbed a colossal wave of profit taking without collapsing.
About 720,000 BTC, sold mainly by recent buyers since mid-April, has been met with an equally strong demand, preventing a more resounding crash despite a $66 billion surge in the Realized Cap of coins held for less than one month.
Profit-Taking Meets Fresh Demand
According to on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr., the $66 billion increase in Realized Cap for the 0-1 month cohort since April 13 is definitive proof of large-scale profit realization by short-term holders.
While such aggressive selling pressure would typically trigger significant downside, Adler highlighted a critical counterforce: new buyers entering the market have been steadily absorbing this massive supply.
In his opinion , this offsetting has kept Bitcoin trading within a relatively narrow range in the last few weeks.
However, his UTXO Block Profit/Loss Count Ratio Model indicates the profit-taking frenzy may have subsided, dropping from an extreme 34,000 points near BTC’s all-time high in May to just 216 points today.
“Profitable sales have almost disappeared,” noted Adler, while the proportion of loss-realizing transactions has increased. The likeliest explanation is that the wave of eager sellers has largely passed, replaced by buyers accumulating at lower levels, reducing the immediate risk of a sharp crash.
Meanwhile, the global markets are experiencing a sense of relief thanks to an unexpected ceasefire between Israel and Iran. U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed a “Complete and Total” cessation of hostilities, quelling fears of a deeper conflict.
Following that, investors like Daan Crypto Trades and Michaël van de Poppe echoed cautious optimism on X, pointing out that reduced geopolitical risk could ease headline-driven volatility and help Bitcoin regain upward momentum.
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
Indeed, BTC has staged a noticeable recovery since dipping below the symbolic $100,000 mark after the U.S. unleashed airstrikes against several Iranian nuclear installations last week. As of this writing, the king cryptocurrency had climbed 3.8% in the last 24 hours to hover around $105,400 after going as high as $105,927 during the Asian trading session.
On a weekly scale, it remains slightly underwater, down about 1.1%, which is a modest underperformance compared to the broader crypto market’s 0.4% gain over the same period.
The asset also experienced a slight 1.7% dip over the last 30 days, reflecting recent liquidation cascades and historical Q3 headwinds. As analyst Benjamin Cowen previously highlighted , Bitcoin often struggles through the summer months. Past bull cycles saw steep drops of 25–35% between June and July before roaring back in late Q4.
