Bitcoin News Today: JPMorgan Sees Bitcoin as Gold’s Risky Twin, Targets $126K Fair Value
- JPMorgan analysts estimate Bitcoin's fair value at $126,000 by 2024, citing reduced volatility and undervaluation relative to gold's risk-adjusted returns. - Institutional demand and corporate treasury purchases are driving Bitcoin's supply squeeze, with ETF inflows reinforcing its price floor despite short-term resistance at $113.6K. - Growing institutional adoption extends beyond Bitcoin, with Ethereum and altcoins like Cardano/AVAX gaining momentum as capital rotates into higher-potential assets. - Ma
Bitcoin is currently trading beneath key cost basis levels, with its price being assessed as undervalued relative to its risk-adjusted potential. According to JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the volatility of Bitcoin has fallen to historic lows, dropping from nearly 60% at the beginning of the year to about 30%. This decline has led to a reevaluation of its fair value, with JPMorgan estimating a fair value of around $126,000 by the end of 2024. This assessment is based on a volatility-adjusted comparison with gold, where the ratio has fallen to 2.0—the lowest on record. At this level, Bitcoin consumes twice as much risk capital as gold in portfolio allocations. JPMorgan suggests that for Bitcoin to match the roughly $5 trillion private gold market, its $2.2 trillion market cap would need to rise by around 13%, implying a price of approximately $126,000. Analysts also highlighted that Bitcoin traded $36,000 above this level at the end of 2024 but is now about $13,000 below it, underscoring potential upside.
Institutional and corporate demand has played a significant role in this price dynamic. Corporate treasuries now account for more than 6% of Bitcoin’s total supply, with companies like Strategy and Metaplanet driving demand by purchasing large quantities of Bitcoin. This trend is likened to the post-2008 quantitative easing that reduced bond market volatility by locking assets into passive holdings. JPMorgan analysts noted that this dynamic, combined with index-driven inflows and declining volatility, is strengthening Bitcoin’s investment case. Lower volatility makes it easier for institutions to allocate capital, bridging the gap between Bitcoin and gold in terms of risk-adjusted returns. The analysts also pointed out that Bitcoin's recent inclusion in major equity indices—such as the FTSE All-World Index—has spurred new institutional inflows and increased adoption.
Bitcoin’s current price of $113,170 as of August 28, 2025, reflects a mixed set of signals. While the price has recovered from seven-week lows near $108,800, it remains more than 9% below its all-time high of $124,533. On-chain analysis by Glassnode highlights that Bitcoin is trading below the cost basis of the 1-month ($115.6K) and 3-month ($113.6K) cohorts, leaving these investors under pressure. The $113.6K level represents the average purchase price for investors who bought Bitcoin within the past three months. As the price approaches this threshold, short-term holders may seek to exit at breakeven points, creating resistance. Additionally, the cryptocurrency faces mixed flow dynamics, with spot demand remaining neutral while perpetual futures tilt bearish. Despite these challenges, ETF inflows have remained strong, with Bitcoin ETFs absorbing $81.4 million daily, reinforcing the price floor.
Corporate adoption of Bitcoin continues to expand, contributing to a supply squeeze dynamic where available Bitcoin becomes increasingly scarce on exchanges. This scarcity can amplify price movements in both directions, creating both risks and opportunities for traders and investors. Institutional accumulation patterns, driven by companies such as Metaplanet, suggest that Bitcoin is being positioned as a strategic asset. This trend is not limited to Bitcoin, as analysts note a broader rotation of capital into altcoins. Ethereum , in particular, is benefiting from increased mindshare and momentum, with whale addresses purchasing $456 million worth of Ether from Bitgo and Galaxy Digital . This activity reflects a natural rotation of investor funds from Bitcoin into altcoins with perceived higher upside potential.
The altcoin rotation is further supported by the performance of other major cryptocurrencies. Ethereum has approached key breakout levels, with ETF inflows of over $3 billion per week helping it regain the $4,500–$4,700 range. Analysts project that Ethereum could see rallies to $5,500 or even $6,000 if Bitcoin continues to move upward. Cardano (ADA) and Avalanche (AVAX) are also showing strength, with ADA trading in the $0.94 to $1.00 range and AVAX experiencing a 4% weekly gain. These developments indicate that the institutional adoption narrative is expanding beyond Bitcoin into major altcoins, potentially reshaping the leadership dynamics in the crypto market.
As the market continues to evolve, investors are advised to monitor key technical levels and institutional activity. Bitcoin faces immediate resistance at $113.6K and $115.6K, with a breakout target of $120,000. Critical support is at $107K, and a break below this level could trigger accelerated selling. On the other hand, continued institutional demand and structural factors, such as ETF inflows and corporate accumulation, suggest that Bitcoin remains well-supported. Analysts predict that the cryptocurrency will stay within a $110,000–$120,000 trading range through Q3, with potential for a breakout in Q4 driven by Federal Reserve policy changes. Overall, the market is showing signs of a broader rotation into altcoins, with Ethereum, Cardano, and Avalanche leading the charge, while other projects like MAGACOIN FINANCE and Ozak AI are gaining attention for their innovative approaches and potential for significant growth.
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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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