MetaMask Token Launch Preview: Massive Airdrop, 10 Billion Valuation, and Potential Risks
$MASK could potentially reach a 12 billion USD FDV and bring about the largest airdrop in history.
Original Title: $MASK Could Reach $12B FDV and Deliver Largest Airdrop Ever
Original Author: The Smart Ape, LBank Partner
Original Translation: Tim, PANews
I think there’s a piece of news that has been overlooked on Crypto Twitter: the CEO of ConsenSys recently announced that the MetaMask token is about to launch. His exact words were: “The MASK token is coming, probably sooner than you expect.”
MetaMask Adoption
Personally, I stopped using MetaMask a while ago because I prefer Rabby’s interface and features, but MetaMask still has the first-mover advantage. It remains the most popular wallet, with 143 million users.
MetaMask Revenue Analysis
MetaMask has multiple sources of revenue:
· MetaMask Swap: Built-in DEX aggregator, charging about 0.9% per swap
· On/Off Ramp: Buying crypto with bank cards
· Cross-chain Bridge: Token transfers across chains
· Staking: Direct ETH staking via MetaMask Portfolio
· Institutional Version: MetaMask institutional solutions for funds and enterprises.
In the past three months, MetaMask’s weekly trading volume has ranged from $60 million to $200 million.
This means average weekly revenue is $1.5 million, with annual revenue around $72 million. Last year’s numbers were even higher, with weekly revenue of about $2.5 million and annual revenue reaching $120 million.
Cross-chain bridge revenue can reach $100,000 per day, adding another $36 million annually.
Other income contributes about $10 million per year, bringing MetaMask’s total annual revenue to around $120 million.
FDV Estimation
We still don’t know the tokenomics or actual utility of the MetaMask token, but it wouldn’t be surprising if there’s some kind of revenue sharing or buyback mechanism. If so, revenue will drive its valuation.
To gauge a reasonable fully diluted valuation/income multiple, we can refer to other wallet tokens, such as TWT, SFP, XDEFI, and GNO.
Under conservative expectations, the fully diluted valuation to income ratio could reach 100x.
Based on current annual revenue of about $120 million, this means its fully diluted valuation could approach $12 billion.
By comparison, Trust Wallet is the second most used wallet, and its token TWT has an FDV of $1.32 billion, so it’s hard to imagine MetaMask’s token launching at less than $5 billion FDV.
Possibly the Largest Airdrop Ever
The largest airdrops in history currently include Uniswap, ApeCoin, dYdX, and Arbitrum, but the MetaMask airdrop is very likely to change this top airdrop list, and may even join or surpass this group.
If we assume a full FDV of $12 billion and a 20% airdrop to MetaMask users, the amount distributed could reach $2.4 billion, easily putting it in the top three.
Although the total amount is huge, it will be spread across more than 140 million users. What’s special about this airdrop is its massive eligible user base, which amplifies the total value and expands the coverage.
A huge user base, sustained revenue, clear utility, and once-every-four-years market hype could make this a historic airdrop.
How to Profit from the MetaMask Token Launch?
I would usually say maximize your airdrop opportunities, but if you haven’t started participating actively yet, it may already be too late, especially considering the ConsenSys CEO hinted that mainnet is launching soon.
One strategy now is to pre-purchase, as the MetaMask token is expected to launch soon on Whales Market, and clearly I’m not the only one waiting for this listing news.
I will be watching the pre-listing FDV closely: if the opening valuation is below $5 billion, early buying could be very attractive, though volatility is expected to be extremely high.
MetaMask may also launch token incentive programs, such as mUSD liquidity pools, staking opportunities, or trading rewards, which could be a good way to mine MetaMask tokens early with high annualized returns.
Given the huge number of potential token recipients, the first 24 hours after the airdrop are likely to see extremely intense market volatility, creating massive arbitrage opportunities between centralized and decentralized exchanges.
Concerns After the LINEA Misstep
ConsenSys launched LINEA a few weeks ago, but made some major mistakes.
There were technical issues during the TGE, including distribution delays and network congestion.
The actual utility of the token is still unclear, and there was immediate whale dumping after the airdrop ended.
Many people complained that Binance Alpha users got faster and more favorable access than most of the community.
I just hope ConsenSys can learn from previous mistakes and avoid repeating them with the MetaMask project, especially making sure that Binance Alpha or insiders don’t get tokens and listing news earlier than the core MetaMask user base.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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