Institutional Bitcoin Buying Drops Below Mining Supply

Net Bitcoin purchases by institutional investors have fallen below the daily issuance rate (mining supply) for the first time in seven months. According to a crypto investment analyst, this signals a concerning shift in market dynamics.

On Monday, Charles Edwards, head of Capriole Investments, shared the stark data on his X account. Expressing immediate concern, Edwards stated, “Won’t lie, this was the main metric keeping me bullish the last months while every other asset outperformed Bitcoin. Not good.”

The Bullish Metric Flips to Bearish

Edwards presented a chart illustrating Bitcoin’s price alongside key institutional buying/selling pressure metrics. These metrics track three types of institutional activity: miners (red), spot ETF and similar institutional buying (light green), and BTC Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) corporate activity (orange).

Institutional Buying/Selling Pressure Metrics. Source: @caprioleio

The analysis shows a staggered decline in demand. BTC DAT corporate buying was the first to diminish significantly, starting around August 14. Initially, the subsequent inflow from spot ETFs compensated for this reduced corporate pressure, keeping the overall institutional demand afloat.

However, spot ETF buying also began to contract sharply following the market crash on October 10. The current scenario shows that comprehensive net institutional purchasing—combining all major institutional streams—has now dropped below the daily supply of newly mined Bitcoin.

The histogram at the bottom of Edwards’ chart, which tracks institutional pressure (green for buying, red for selling), is transitioning from green to red.

Heavy Bags and Waning Interest

While cautioning that this short-term trend does not dictate long-term direction, Edwards highlighted the immediate structural weakness. “The trend could flip tomorrow, next week, or in 2 years. But right now we have 188 treasury companies carrying heavy bags with no business model and a lot less interested institutional buyers than before,” he stated.

Separately, on-chain data platform Lookonchain reported increased selling movement among individual whale investors, outside of institutional streams. In a Monday post, the firm noted that a major whale, “BitcoinOG (1011short),” deposited approximately 13,000 BTC ($1.48 billion) to exchanges including Kraken, Binance, Coinbase, and Hyperliquid since October 1.

Furthermore, prominent Bitcoin whale ‘Owen Gunden’ was confirmed to have transferred 3,265 BTC ($364.5 million) to the Kraken exchange after October 21. Large transfers to centralized exchanges typically precede major liquidation events, though final confirmation of cash-out is pending.