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Bitcoin (BTC) is currently showing a mixed but slightly bullish structural outlook as market momentum gradually strengthens across major timeframes. Although volatility remains elevated, BTC’s recent price behavior suggests that buyers are attempting to regain dominance after a period of consolidation. One of the key indicators supporting this view is the consistent formation of higher lows on the daily chart, which typically hints at accumulation. Even though we are not referencing exact live prices here, the overall trend direction remains relevant: Bitcoin continues to trade above several mid-term support zones, reflecting steady market confidence. From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin’s momentum indicators such as RSI and MACD generally show a shift toward bullish territory, with RSI often hovering near the mid-range and slowly pushing upward. This indicates renewed buying pressure, though not at overly extended levels—leaving room for further upside. Meanwhile, MACD signals on higher timeframes tend to align with a gradual upward crossover, reinforcing the concept of an emerging bullish phase. However, price sentiment remains sensitive to macroeconomic triggers such as interest-rate expectations, U.S. market liquidity, and global risk appetite. Looking at market structure, BTC’s nearest psychological resistance remains a crucial barrier. If bulls succeed in breaking this zone with strong volume, the next leg upward could accelerate sharply as liquidity clusters get cleared. On the downside, well-established support levels remain intact, meaning any pullback may simply act as a retest rather than a reversal. Traders typically watch for successful support rebounds as confirmation of strength. Sentiment across crypto communities and derivatives markets also leans moderately bullish, with open interest rising and funding rates staying relatively balanced—signaling organic demand rather than overheated speculation. Long-term holders continue to show confidence by keeping supply off exchanges, a historically reliable bullish factor. Signal Summary: Bias remains Bullish to Moderately Bullish. A breakout above key resistance can unlock a strong upward continuation, while dips toward support may offer strategic entry zones. Use strict risk management, avoid FOMO, and monitor volume behavior closely, as Bitcoin often confirms major moves through momentum surges.$BTC

Here are some key updates in the crypto space as of today: 📉 Market Snapshot Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around US$95,770, showing a modest decline in recent days. Ethereum (ETH) is around US$3,193, showing slight movement but generally weak sentiment. These figures reflect a market under pressure. 🔍 What’s going on Bitcoin dropped to its lowest level in six months, falling below US$95,000. The slide has been driven by waning hopes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates soon, as well as broader risk-off sentiment in global markets. Large outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs — about US$870 million withdrawn — signal that institutional appetite is weakening. The market for altcoins is also suffering, with tokens like Solana and XRP dropping by 7-9% over recent days. On-chain indicators suggest the crypto market is in a consolidation or mild bear regime — many metrics pointing to weakness rather than strength at this point. Meanwhile, the privacy-focused coin Zcash (ZEC) is seeing renewed interest, driven by institutional adoption of privacy technology and regulatory clarity. ✅ What it might mean The sharp drop in price and capital outflows suggest the market is not in bullish mode; traders and investors are cautious. If Bitcoin breaks further support levels (e.g., under US$95,000), it could open the door to deeper corrections. For altcoins, the situation is more fragile — they may be more exposed if broader crypto sentiment worsens. The interest in Zcash and privacy tech may signal a shift: while mainstream crypto is stressed, niche segments (privacy, infrastructure) could have upside if they deliver real use cases. 📌 What to watch Whether Bitcoin stabilises above US$95K or drops further — this is a key support area. ETF inflows/outflows data — continued heavy outflows would reinforce the bearish picture. Macro/regulatory developments — e.g., central bank decisions, interest-rates, regulatory clarity. On-chain signals — e.g., stablecoin liquidity, network activity, derivatives open interest. Niche crypto trends — especially privacy coins and infrastructure projects with real traction. If you like, I can pull detailed charts for BTC & ETH and send a list of 5 altcoins that are showing early signs of strength or weakness today. Would you like that?

Based on a comprehensive review of on-chain data and technical analysis, the crypto market is not yet in a confirmed bear market, but it is in a high-risk mid-cycle breakdown phase that could transition into a full bear market if current stress levels persist. The overall crypto market has lost over $700 billion in the past month, with Bitcoin (BTC) falling below the critical $100,000 level multiple times. I. Market Status: Mid-Cycle Breakdown The current market phase resembles historical mid-cycle corrections rather than end-of-cycle tops, but the risk of transition is high: Conclusion: The market is in a mid-cycle breakdown phase. A confirmed bear run requires three specific conditions to be met (detailed below). On-Chain Cost Basis: Bitcoin is trading near the realized price of the 6–12 month holder cohort (around $94,600). When the price falls below this "bull-cycle conviction buyers'" cost basis, it indicates market structure weakening—a signal seen in previous mid-cycle breaks, not necessarily cycle tops. Market Momentum (MACD): While Bitcoin's MACD is deeply negative, the overall crypto market's average MACD is slightly positive (0.02), with 58% of assets still holding positive momentum. This mixed reading indicates a transition phase, as full bear markets historically see 90%+ of assets with negative MACD. II. Critical Technical Patterns and Support Levels Bitcoin's technical structure is at a major turning point, placing the market in a precarious zone: Loss of 365-Day Moving Average (MA): Bitcoin has broken below its most important long-term structural pivot, the 365-day MA (near $102,000). Historically, losing this MA (as seen in December 2021) has preceded full bear markets. Failure to reclaim this level quickly is the strongest technical argument for a regime shift. RSI Oversold Conditions: Market-wide Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings are in oversold territory, a condition typical of mid-cycle corrections (like May–July 2021 or August 2024), where stress is high but the long-term trend has not yet fully reversed. III. Sentiment and Capitulation Signals Current investor sentiment is reflective of deep bear markets, signaling mass capitulation: Fear & Greed Index: The index has plummeted to 10 ("Extreme Fear"), a level comparable to confirmed bear-market stress seen in early and mid-2022. This signals widespread investor exhaustion and capitulation but does not alone confirm the end of a bull cycle. IV. Three Conditions for Confirmed Bear Market For the market to officially transition from a mid-cycle breakdown to a full bear market, all three of the following conditions must be met: Sustained 365-Day MA Failure: Bitcoin must remain definitively below the $102,000 (365-day MA) for a period of 4–6 weeks. Long-Term Holder Distribution: Long-term holder (LTH) selling must continue, with distribution exceeding 1 million BTC over a 60-day period. Market-Wide Negative Momentum: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) must flip fully negative across the entire market, moving from the current 58% positive momentum to 90%+ negative.

glassnode：山寨币仅有约 5% 供应量处于盈利，比特币的盈利比例开始急剧下降 glassnode 表示，山寨币的相对利润在市场深度抛售阶段趋于稳定，仅有约 5% 的供应量处于盈利状态，而比特币的盈利比例刚刚开始急剧下降。这种比特币与山寨币之间不寻常的表现差异，在以往的市场周期中从未出现过。