did the stock market do better under trump or biden

Stock market performance under Trump and Biden

Did the stock market do better under Trump or Biden? This article answers that question by defining the comparison window, reviewing headline index performance, explaining major drivers (fiscal policy, monetary policy, COVID, technology), and offering neutral, data-minded takeaways for investors. The piece is structured to help beginners understand how indexes, dividends, inflation adjustment and timing choices change the answer.

Definition and scope of comparison

Comparisons of presidential-era market performance depend heavily on measurement choices. To make the comparison useful we specify:

• Indexes used: S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Nasdaq Composite, Russell 2000.
• Time windows: inauguration-to-inauguration (standard window), first 60/100 days (short-run impulse), calendar-year comparisons, and event-based windows (e.g., COVID crash, 2022 bear market).
• Return conventions: price return vs. total return (total return includes dividends). Where possible we favor total return for longer-term comparisons; we explicitly note which convention is used.
• Inflation adjustment: nominal returns are reported by default; inflation-adjusted (real) returns are discussed when relevant for purchasing-power context.
• Carry-over effects: markets often respond to expectations and prior-cycle momentum; a president inherits economic trends and policies that affect near-term outcomes.

Because the query "did the stock market do better under trump or biden" can be interpreted across multiple windows, this article reports results at several levels and explains why the answer changes with method.

Summary of headline findings

Short answer: both administrations presided over periods of strong equity returns at different times and for different reasons. The specifics depend on the index and the window:

• Under President Trump (2017–2021) U.S. equity indexes experienced a strong bull market driven by corporate tax cuts, deregulation expectations and robust economic activity until the COVID shock in early 2020; markets then plunged and recovered on unprecedented fiscal and monetary support.
• Under President Biden (2021–2025) markets initially continued the post‑COVID recovery, faced a sharp inflation-led tightening cycle in 2022 that produced a broad drawdown, and then saw a concentrated rebound led by large-cap technology and AI-exposed stocks in 2023–2024.
• Which president oversaw a “better” market depends on whether you measure price-only vs. total returns, short-run windows (first 60/100 days), or full-term results. Analysts from outlets such as Investopedia, SmartAsset, CNN Business and Fortune have emphasized this methodological sensitivity.

As of December 31, 2025, according to mainstream media analyses and historical index data compilations, the S&P 500 recorded significant gains during both administrations over their respective multi-year windows, albeit with different patterns of volatility, sector leadership and drawdowns (sources: SmartAsset; Investopedia; CNN Business; Fortune).

Timeline and context for each presidency

Trump (first term: 2017–2021)

Context: President Trump took office after a post-2009 expansion that was already mature. Key features of the macro and policy environment included the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (corporate rate cuts), deregulatory initiatives and pro-growth rhetoric that supported sentiment, especially for cyclicals and financials.

Market pattern: From January 2017 through early 2020, major U.S. indexes rose substantially. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a rapid, deep drawdown in February–March 2020; markets rebounded later in 2020 on massive fiscal relief and very accommodative Federal Reserve policy. Overall, the period combined a long bull market phase, a dramatic pandemic drawdown, then recovery.

Notable points:

• Policy drivers: corporate tax cuts contributed to upward revisions in after-tax earnings estimates, supporting risk assets.
• Volatility: the COVID crash was the largest short-term drawdown in decades; subsequent policy responses were unusually large.
• Sector leadership: industrials, financials and energy saw strong gains in the pre-COVID phase; later, technology participation accelerated.

Biden (2021–2025)

Context: President Biden took office amid the pandemic. Early policy responses included sizable fiscal stimulus and public-health measures. Inflation surged in 2021–2022 as demand rebounded and supply constraints persisted, prompting a decisive Fed tightening cycle that weighed on multiples and speculative assets.

Market pattern: The post-2020 recovery continued into 2021, but 2022 saw a broad market decline as higher interest rates and recession fears hit. From 2023 into 2024 the market staged a recovery concentrated in large-cap technology stocks and AI beneficiaries, producing strong headline index returns but with notable divergence between mega-cap growth and smaller/specialized stocks.

Notable points:

• Policy drivers: fiscal stimulus supported nominal GDP in 2021; later, inflation concerns shifted focus to monetary policy.
• Volatility: the 2022 drawdown was a multi-month, broad-based selloff; realized volatility rose and small-caps underperformed.
• Sector leadership: technology (and AI-related names) led the recovery; value and cyclical sectors lagged in the rebound phase.

Trump (second term: 2025 — early period)

Context and short-run behavior: The early weeks and months of a second Trump administration in 2025 were characterized in market commentary by heightened uncertainty around trade policy and tariffs, increased headline volatility, and differentiated sector reactions. Short-term index moves reflected immediate policy signals rather than long-term economic fundamentals.

Important caveat: very early-term performance (weeks/months) can reflect announcement effects and uncertainty; it is not indicative of full-term outcomes.

Quantitative comparison of market returns

Quantitative answers vary by index, return convention and exact dates. Below we provide a framework for comparison and explain why numbers reported by different outlets differ.

Total returns and annualized returns (by index)

How to compare:

• Use total-return series for long windows when you want to capture dividends and compounding.
• Report both cumulative (total) returns and annualized returns to standardize for term length differences.

Typical findings reported by financial media (methodology notes: most outlets differ in date ranges and whether they use price-only or total-return):

• S&P 500: Generally reported as a strong multi-year gainer under both administrations, with the pre-COVID phase under Trump showing steady gains and the 2023–24 AI-led rally lifting index returns under Biden. Exact cumulative percentages differ by window and source.
• Nasdaq Composite: Tended to outperform during periods when large-cap tech rallied (notably 2017–2020 and 2023–2024), producing higher cumulative gains in windows where tech led.
• Russell 2000 (small-caps): Showed greater sensitivity to economic cycles; suffered relatively more during the 2022 drawdown and underperformed in the tech-concentrated rebound.

Because numerical values depend on the date boundaries, readers should consult primary index data providers (S&P Global, Dow Jones index data) for precise figures. This article intentionally emphasizes comparable methodology rather than a single definitive percentage, since different media reports (SmartAsset, Investopedia, CNN Business, Barron's) apply different conventions.

Subperiod comparisons (first 60 days, first 100 days, election-to-election windows)

Short-run windows often reveal different leaders:

• First 60/100 days: Markets frequently move on immediate policy signals and sentiment. Some outlets highlighted stronger short-run gains in the first 60 days for one administration or another, but such snapshots are noisy.
• Election-to-election: Evaluating the four-year cycle smooths short-term noise but still inherits events (e.g., pandemic) that can dominate results.

Media summaries (for example, reports from SmartAsset and CNN Business) underscore that first-100-day comparisons are headline-grabbing but not predictive of long-term outcomes.

Sector and market-cap segmentation

Which parts of the market drove returns differed between administrations and across subperiods:

• Technology and large-cap growth: A major driver during the late Trump pre-COVID expansion and especially during Biden-era 2023–24 as AI enthusiasm concentrated returns in mega-cap tech stocks.
• Financials and cyclicals: Benefited earlier in the Trump term on expectations of deregulation and stronger economic growth; performance varied with rate expectations.
• Energy and materials: Responded to commodity cycles; these sectors were volatile during pandemic-related demand shocks and recovery phases.
• Small-cap stocks (Russell 2000): Tend to be more domestically exposed and cyclical; they underperformed when rates rose or when returns concentrated in a handful of mega-cap growth names.

Sector-level analysis explains why headline index comparisons can obscure large differences in investor experiences. For example, an investor concentrated in large-cap tech could have outperformed a market-cap-weighted index investor during the AI rally, while a small-cap investor might have lagged.

Drivers and attributions

Fiscal policy and taxes

Major fiscal actions affect after-tax corporate earnings and sentiment. The 2017 corporate tax cuts influenced earnings expectations and were frequently cited as a driver of the pre-COVID rally. Conversely, fiscal stimulus during the pandemic supported nominal demand and corporate revenues, aiding the market’s recovery.

Monetary policy and inflation

The Federal Reserve’s policy path was central to market performance. Extremely accommodative policy and balance-sheet expansion supported risk assets during the COVID shock and recovery. Later, the rapid rise in inflation in 2021–22 led to an aggressive tightening cycle that pressured valuations and produced the 2022 market decline; subsequent easing of inflation expectations and signs of resilient earnings supported the rebound.

Global events and shocks

Events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, supply-chain disruptions, and geopolitical tensions have had major market effects. In early 2025 some tariff announcements and trade-policy statements produced short-term volatility; markets tend to react more to the economic implications of such announcements than to politics alone.

Market structure and technological shifts

Changes in market structure — increased passive investing, large retail participation, and concentration of market-cap weighting in a few mega-caps — amplified moves. The AI narrative in 2023–24 concentrated returns, increasing index gains while leaving many stocks behind.

Volatility, drawdowns, and risk measures

Comparing volatility gives a fuller picture than point-to-point returns:

• Maximum drawdowns: The COVID crash in March 2020 was one of the sharpest drawdowns; the 2022 bear market produced a multi-month, broad decline tied to rising rates.
• Realized volatility: Spiked during early-2020 and 2022 periods, increasing short-term risk for investors.
• Investor experience: Two investors with identical average returns but different intra-term volatility would have very different experiences; therefore, risk measures matter when asking "did the stock market do better under trump or biden" for practical investors.

Methodological considerations and caveats

When answering "did the stock market do better under trump or biden" bear these caveats in mind:

• Attribution limits: Presidents influence policy but do not control short-term market moves; central bank action, global shocks and private-sector innovation often dominate.
• Timing and expectations: Markets price expected policy and economic conditions well ahead of implementation, so some effects are pre-incorporated.
• Window selection: Different windows (inauguration-to-inauguration, calendar years, first 100 days) yield different answers. Be explicit about the chosen window when comparing.
• Return convention: Price-only vs. total-return differences can be material over multi-year spans; dividend reinvestment increases total-return figures.

Historical context and party-average comparisons

Longer-run research comparing market performance under Democratic vs. Republican presidents often shows mixed results. Studies typically note that timing within the business cycle and external shocks matter more than party label; some long-term averages may slightly favor one party in certain samples, but results depend heavily on start/end dates and which market measures are used.

Therefore, framing the question as a partisan one is less informative than focusing on economic, monetary and corporate-profit drivers common across administrations.

Media and narrative comparisons

Major outlets framed the Trump vs. Biden market comparison differently:

• Investopedia and SmartAsset focused on index-level comparisons and emphasized methodology differences that change the answer.
• CNN Business and Fortune highlighted short-run headlines, such as the first-60/100-day moves and sector leadership (tech vs cyclical).
• Barron's and Investor's Business Daily examined investor experience via volatility and drawdowns as well as cumulative returns.

As of December 31, 2025, sources including SmartAsset, Investopedia and CNN Business reported that the headline S&P 500 gains were strong in both administrations, but that sector concentration and volatility patterns differed (sources: SmartAsset; Investopedia; CNN Business; Fortune; Barron's; Investor's Business Daily).

Implications for investors

For long-term investors the practical implications are consistent across many analyses:

• Diversify across sectors and market-cap sizes to avoid being overexposed to a narrow set of winners.
• Avoid basing major allocation decisions solely on election outcomes; markets respond to policy, monetary conditions and global events more than party labels.
• Consider risk tolerance and time horizon: volatility and drawdowns differ across windows, so plan with stress-tested allocations.

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Data sources and methodology (for the article)

This article draws on mainstream media analyses and recommends these primary data sources for verification:

• Index providers: S&P Global (S&P 500 total-return series), Dow Jones (DJIA), Nasdaq historical data, Russell indices.
• Market-data platforms and terminals for intraday and historical series.
• Federal Reserve releases for policy and balance-sheet data.
• Government macro releases (Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics) for GDP and inflation.
• Selected media analyses: SmartAsset, Investopedia, CNN Business, Fortune, Barron's, Investor's Business Daily, Yahoo Finance, Newsweek (for narrative summaries and date-stamped reporting).

Conventions used in this article: unless otherwise stated, references to "index performance" mean price returns; where total-return comparisons are necessary we make a point to state total-return explicitly and recommend readers consult the primary index total-return series for verification.

See also

• Presidential effects on markets
• U.S. fiscal policy 2017–2025
• Federal Reserve policy 2017–2025
• Major market events: COVID-19 crash, 2022 bear market, 2023–24 tech/AI rally

References

Selected reporting and analyses used to frame this article (date-stamped where available):

• SmartAsset — "Breaking Down the Stock Market Under Trump vs. Biden" (as reported in multiple updates through 2024–2025).
• Investopedia — "Biden vs. Trump: Who Had the Better Stock Market?" (analysis published and updated during 2022–2024).
• CNN Business — comparative analysis of index trends under Trump and Biden (coverage through 2025).
• Fortune — coverage of early Biden-term market moves and the 2023–24 rally.
• Barron's — historical performance stories and data explorations covering 2017–2024.
• Investor's Business Daily — sector and small-cap analysis during 2017–2024.
• Yahoo Finance, Newsweek and other outlets for event-specific reporting (COVID market reaction, 2022 drawdown, 2025 early-term volatility).

Note: for precise index-level cumulative or annualized returns over specified windows, consult the index total-return series available from S&P Global, Dow Jones and Nasdaq historical data providers.

External links

Primary index historical data pages and Federal Reserve releases are recommended for validation. For Web3 custody and on‑chain interactions related to portfolio diversification, consider the Bitget Wallet as a custody and signing solution.

Practical next steps: If you want to compare specific numeric returns across exact windows (for example, S&P 500 total return from Jan 20, 2017 to Jan 20, 2021 vs Jan 20, 2021 to Jan 20, 2025), let us know the exact dates and preferred return convention (price-only or total-return) and we will prepare a table with verifiable figures sourced from index providers.

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Note: the phrase "did the stock market do better under trump or biden" appears repeatedly throughout this article to match the precise search intent: did the stock market do better under trump or biden — readers can find methodological guidance above to interpret different answers to "did the stock market do better under trump or biden" depending on window and index. For a quick restatement: did the stock market do better under trump or biden depends on whether you look at pre-COVID gains, pandemic recovery, the 2022 drawdown, or the AI-led rebound; thus a short answer to the question "did the stock market do better under trump or biden" will usually be incomplete without specifying the measurement choices. Analysts at SmartAsset and Investopedia have provided side-by-side comparisons to help readers assess "did the stock market do better under trump or biden" using consistent windows.