Arthur Hayes: Believes that Bitcoin will form a support between $30,000 and $35,000

Arthur Hayes posted a lengthy article on his blog stating, "The first argument for Bitcoin's recent decline is the capital outflow from Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). This argument doesn't hold water because when you offset GBTC's net capital outflows with the inflows of newly listed spot bitcoin trading platform exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the result as of January 22 was a net inflow of funds. The second argument, which is also my view, is that Bitcoin anticipates that Bank Term Funding Plan (BTFP) will not be renewed. This event would be unfavorable because the Federal Reserve has not yet lowered interest rates to push 10-year Treasury bonds into the 2% to 3% range. At these levels, bond portfolios of non-'too big to fail' (TBTF) banks will become profitable again instead of being huge unrealized losses currently burdening their balance sheets. These banks cannot survive without official support provided by BTFP before interest rates drop to aforementioned levels. Strong performance in financial markets gave Yellen and Powell false confidence that markets won't bankrupt some non-TBTF banks once BTFP isn’t renewed anymore. Therefore, they believe they can stop BTFP without causing negative market reactions. However, I believe quite opposite: stopping BTFP will trigger a mini financial crisis and force Fed to stop talking and start taking actions including lowering interest rates, slowing down quantitative tightening (QT), or/and restarting money printing through quantitative easing(QE). The price trend of Bitcoin tells me I'm right and they're wrong.
As I wrote in my article, I believe Bitcoin will fall before March 12th decision on BTFP renewal .I didn’t expect it would happen so quickly but I think Bitcoin will find a local bottom between $30k-$35k.From ETF approval high point at $48k,a 30% adjustment equals $33.6k.Therefore, I believe Bitcoin will form support between $30k-$35k.That's why I bought put options with a strike price of $35k expiring on March 29th,2024.I also liquidated my positions in Solana and Bonk at slightly loss."