QCP Capital: expects one US rate cut in September, maintains structural bullish view on crypto market

June 13 (Bloomberg) -- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released last night gave a big boost to risk assets, according to a post from Singapore-based crypto investment firm QCP Capital. The US stock market reached new all-time highs, while Bitcoin (BTC) soared to $70,000, but then fell back to $67,300 this morning. Looking at market forecasts, there will be two rate cuts in 2024. Current interest rate futures show a 56% chance of a rate cut in September, while the second cut is expected to occur in December.

QCP Capital's take: The Fed's dot plot still doesn't give enough clarity, so it's hard to predict whether officials are more inclined to cut rates once or twice this year. However, we expect one rate cut in September, and the Fed will likely take a wait-and-see approach at the following November and December meetings. For the remainder of the year, we take a structurally bullish view. This is largely based on our expectation of S-1 approval for the Ether ETF and rate cuts that could occur in September and at the end of the year.