Trump leads Harris by 2.2% on Polymarket; Elon Musk calls it ‘more accurate’ than polls

Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s odds of winning the upcoming election have risen to 50.6% on the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, surpassing current Vice President Kamala Harris' 48.4%. 

Stakes on Trump and Harris have fluctuated back and forth on the $1.3 billion Polymarket bet ever since current President Joe Biden exited the election in July. While Harris took the lead on Polymarket for a significant portion of September, bets on Trump’s win grew this month.

“Trump now leading Kamala by 3% in betting markets. More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line,” wrote Tesla CEO Elon Musk on X, referring to the rounded-up percentage outcome of the Polymarket vote. Polymarket’s prediction differs from the national polling average from the New York Times, where Harris leads by 49% while Trump holds 47%.

Musk for Trump

On Saturday, the tech billionaire made his first appearance at Trump’s rally, which took place in Butler, Pennsylvania — the place where the former president narrowly survived the assassination attempt. Musk, wearing a cap with the “Make America Great Again” slogan, called Trump the only presidential candidate “to preserve democracy in America," according to a report from AP News. 

Cryptocurrency emerged as a significant topic during the 2024 presidential election as Trump repeatedly made his support for crypto, NFTs, and DeFi clear. After keeping silent on the subject for weeks, Harris said last month that she intends to encourage growth in “digital assets.” Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, told The Block last week that Harris poses more uncertainty for crypto despite saying that “crypto wins no matter what happens” in the upcoming election. 

The 2024 U.S. presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 5.