Bitget App
Trade smarter
Buy cryptoMarketsTradeFuturesEarnWeb3SquareMore
Trade
Spot
Buy and sell crypto with ease
Margin
Amplify your capital and maximize fund efficiency
Onchain
Going Onchain, without going Onchain!
Convert
Zero fees, no slippage
Explore
Launchhub
Gain the edge early and start winning
Copy
Copy elite trader with one click
Bots
Simple, fast, and reliable AI trading bot
Trade
USDT-M Futures
Futures settled in USDT
USDC-M Futures
Futures settled in USDC
Coin-M Futures
Futures settled in cryptocurrencies
Explore
Futures guide
A beginner-to-advanced journey in futures trading
Futures promotions
Generous rewards await
Overview
A variety of products to grow your assets
Simple Earn
Deposit and withdraw anytime to earn flexible returns with zero risk
On-chain Earn
Earn profits daily without risking principal
Structured Earn
Robust financial innovation to navigate market swings
VIP and Wealth Management
Premium services for smart wealth management
Loans
Flexible borrowing with high fund security
Asia Color

Asia Color

QCP CapitalQCP Capital2024/11/04 16:00
By:[email protected]

Harris and Trump are locked in a tight race as odds on Polymarket have moved closer to actual poll estimates. Polymarket odds are still in favor of Trump at 55% but have decreased significantly from 66% a week ago.

The sideways price action over the weekend and decrease in leveraged perp positioning (from 30b to 26B across exchanges) suggest that the market remains cautious.

So, is this the calm before a break from the multi-month range and push toward all-time highs? The options market definitely thinks so as we’ve seen an increase in topside positioning with substantial buying of end-Nov 75k Calls since last Friday. Election-date options positions are also rising with Friday implied vols >87 even as realized vols are at 40.

We expect spot to chop around this range until we get more clarity on the election results this week, where a Trump win is likely to cause a knee-jerk reaction higher, and vice versa if Kamala wins.

0

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

PoolX: Earn new token airdrops
Lock your assets and earn 10%+ APR
Lock now!