Polymarket gained significant traction in the period leading up to the US election. Betting activity and predictions on the 2024 U.S. presidential election alone reached nearly $3.2 billion.
Donald Trump beat Kamala Harris to become the 47th president of the United States, and his success made several high-stakes pundits substantial profits on their predictions on Polymarket. While questions persist about whether politics and financial wagering should intersect, Polymarket seems to have definitively answered questions about its ability to accurately measure the pulse of real-life events.
Trump-supporting whales dominate Polymarket
US presidential election bets dominated activity on Polymarket. Source: Polymarket
Different factors contributed to the conviction of the large bets on Trump winning the election. One of the most notable bets was a $30 million wager by a French trader known only as “Théo.”
While many first thought that he wagered so much because of his love for Trump and all he stands for, Théo insisted that his motivations were totally financial. He also offered that his prediction was based on Trump’s past electoral performance and polling data.
Aside from Théo, other whales also bet on Trump to win the election. One known simply as Fredi9999 wagered as much as $11.65 million, while another known as zxgngl threw in $7.82 million.
After Trump’s win, the whales made a killing, with Fredi9999 raking in about $15.6M while zxgngl went home with a profit of $11M!
Wagers on the presidential election winner had attracted a total of $3.2 billion across different market options as of election day. Most bets leaned toward a Trump win with $1.3 billion wagered on the former president and $827 million on Harris.
The Trump-supporting whales were only able to make such a killing thanks to Polymarket’s unorthodox platform, a prediction market that allows users to bet on real-world events and outcomes.
Polymarket: The new news
Polymarket’s X account has been on a victory lap across X (formerly Twitter) regarding its election coverage. Observers have also said the election proved the wisdom of markets over polls, traditional media, and pundits. These claims cite Polymarket consistently and accurately forecasting outcomes well ahead of the usual sources.
Polymarket’s growing popularity threatens mainstream legacy media. One user even went as far as declaring the platform’s statistics as more trustworthy than polls, a tool the political world greatly relies on during electoral cycles. They also see it as proof of how effective high-volume and deeply liquid prediction markets like Polymarket can be.
Until election day, mainstream media maintained that the election was “too close to call.” Claims also emerged pre-election that Harris had gained a “commanding lead” in some crucial swing states. Meanwhile, Polymarket already had Trump’s winning odds at 66.7% as early as late October.
Polymarket is an open platform with transparent data available to users outside the US, where betting on election outcomes is outlawed. It combines data-driven insights with public sentiment.
The platform offers a twist on traditional betting and allows users to capitalize on their knowledge of current events. Earlier this year, Vitalkik Buterin had to defend the platform when it hosted bets about conflicts in the Middle East.
However, with Polymarket now offering a way to connect real-world events with financial markets, the platform looks set to be a fixture in determining future elections and similar events.
