Solana’s record $318B transfer volume ‘bot driven’ — Will SOL price suffer?

From theblock by Nancy Lubale

The Solana blockchain recently saw its onchain transfer volume hit record highs, but market intelligence firm Glassnode claims that most of this activity is conducted by bots. 

In a Nov. 19 post on X, Glassnode  noted  that Solana’s  SOL$245.12  transfer volume hit an all-time high of $318 billion on Nov. 16.

This is almost three times SOL’s total market capitalization, which is currently about $112.5 billion. The number of total active addresses on Solana had spiked to 22 million. 

Still, the onchain analytics firm noted that the mean and median transaction volumes dipped around the same time. 

This raises questions about the veracity of Solana metrics because if the growth is organic, it should be accompanied by a similar uptick in the averages.

In an attempt to explain this phenomenon, Glassnode said:

“This pattern of network activity inflation may be indicative of bot-driven activity, which has historically contributed to similar trends on Solana.”

Total transfer volume on Solana. Source: Glassnode

The ramped-up activity was likely responsible for recent increases in fees and network revenue. 

Solana daily revenue hit a record high of almost $6 million on Nov. 20, with network participants paying $7.63 million in transaction fees, according to  data  from DefiLlama.

Solana revenue and fees. Source: DefiLlama

Additional data from Blockworks Research  reveals  that Solana achieved an all-time high of $26 million in real economic value (REV) on Nov. 19. 

The layer-1 network also  clocked the highest-ever  decentralized exchange (DEX) volume of $6.93 billion, with Raydium representing 74% of Solana’s DEX trading volume with $5.13 billion, on Nov. 19, as per DefiLlama data. 

Still, a closer analysis of Raydium’s liquidity pools reveals that countless liquidity pools on this protocol have little to no liquidity and generate unreal trading volumes.

For example, the SOL-HAT pool held just $7 in liquidity but had almost $400,000 in 24-hour trading volume.

Liquidity pools on Raydium. Source: Raydium

This suggests that bots and other inorganic trading activities may drive a big chunk of Solana’s transaction volume. 

This is not the only time Glassnode has claimed the presence of inorganic activity on Solana. On Nov. 4, the firm  asserted  that a “massive spike in onchain transfer volume” on Solana was “driven by a high-activity wallet using multiple accounts.”

Similarly, Cointelegraph previously  reported  on claims by pseudonymous researcher Flip Research that most of the activity on Solana was conducted by bots.

Critics have suggested that reported figures of Solana’s network activity in the last couple of months may be artificially inflated due to wash trading in memecoins, leading to skepticism over the network’s real growth trajectory.

SOL could “soar straight to $400”

Nevertheless, the recent spike in Solana’s network activity continues to spark investor interest as traders remain optimistic about Solana’s  SOL$245.12  prospects.

Pseudonymous analyst Titan of Crypto  says  SOL could possibly  hit the $400 mark  as it appears ready to break out of a cup-and-handle pattern. 

Source:  Titan of Crypto

Veteran trader Peter Brandt shared similar sentiments,  saying  Solana’s upward swing over the last few weeks is likely to drive its price further higher, setting the short-term target at around $275.

“Oftentimes, the price moves in swings, where the swings are relatively equal in price. I am sure Elliott traders get quite precise (as they tend to do ), but I just use swing targets as a guide.”

SOL/USD daily chart. Source:  Peter Brandt

Solana’s recent performance  could be only the beginning of a bigger bull market cycle. Its price was up 15% over the last seven days and 43% over the last month to trade at $238 at the time of publication.

This uptick saw its market cap reach an all-time high of $117.8 billion on Nov. 18, cementing its position as the fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market value.