Bitcoin Transactions Decline Mirroring 2023 Price Drop: Unraveling the Situation

Key Points

• Bitcoin’s network activity indicates a downturn, reflecting weakened investor sentiment.
• Decreased trading volumes, UTXO count, and active addresses suggest a potential investor exodus and price stagnation.

Bitcoin’s Network Activity Declines

Bitcoin’s network activity shows a worrying downturn, mirroring weakened investor sentiment. Active wallets, transactions, and UTXO counts have all been trending downward, similar to past correction periods.

The accumulation rate of Bitcoin spot ETFs has also slowed, with recent capital outflows observed.

Decreased Market Participation

Bitcoin’s active addresses saw a sharp decline in early 2025, with the metric peaking near 1.2 million in 2021 and falling to 900,000 by 2025. This drop in trading volumes has raised concerns about a potential investor exodus and waning confidence, driven by geopolitical tensions and the lack of Bitcoin-friendly legislative action.

If this trend continues, Bitcoin’s price, currently at $96,200, could face prolonged consolidation, unless new catalysts emerge.

Bitcoin’s transaction count also displayed a significant decline. Transactions, which once peaked at 650,000 daily in 2021, dropped below 400,000 by early 2025. This reduction in trading activity indicated weakened investor sentiment, resembling the September 2023 correction when transaction counts fell during market downturns.

Persistent declines could put additional pressure on Bitcoin’s price, particularly amid risk-off sentiment related to uncertainties in trade policy. A reversal would require renewed market optimism or stability in macroeconomic factors.

Unspent BTC Shrinking?

Bitcoin’s UTXO Count, recorded from 2015 to 2025, declined notably in early 2025, falling to levels comparable to the September 2023 correction. This trend raised concerns that the market might be nearing the end of a cycle, although this conclusion is not yet definitive. The pattern indicated reduced network activity and lower investor accumulation, leading to worries about potential price stagnation.

However, some bullish indicators suggested a possible recovery, dependent on new market catalysts.

Who Controls the Market?

Bitcoin’s net taker volume on Binance, tracked from February 9 to 23, 2025, revealed low 7HMA values, with negative spikes dominating. This indicated bearish pressure, as taker sellers outpaced buyers, reinforcing weak market sentiment. The pattern was similar to March 2024 when low net taker volumes preceded a consolidation phase.

A resurgence in long positions depended on taker buyers regaining control. This relied on geopolitical stabilization or new bullish catalysts. If sentiment improved, Bitcoin’s price could recover from $96,200. Otherwise, a longer consolidation period seemed likely.

The slowdown in spot ETF accumulation and net taker volumes underscored current market uncertainty. While historical patterns suggest that BTC could recover, any sustained upward movement would require a shift in macroeconomic sentiment.

It would also need the resolution of geopolitical tensions or renewed institutional demand.