'Bitcoin Macro Index' bear signal puts $110K BTC price return in doubt

Bitcoin ( BTC ) risks falling into a fresh bear market as a large collection of BTC price metrics has produced a “bearish divergence.”

In a social media discussion on March 27, Bitcoin commentators flagged troubling signals from the Capriole Investments’ Bitcoin Macro Index.

Bitcoin Macro Index slump “not great,” says creator

As BTC/USD struggles to return to the area around all-time highs, onchain metrics are beginning to lose their bull market edge.

The Bitcoin Macro Index, created by Capriole in 2022, uses machine learning to analyze data from a large number of metrics that founder Charles Edwards says “give a strong indication of Bitcoin’s relative value throughout historic cycles.”

“The model only looks at onchain and macro-market data. Uniquely, price data and technical analysis is not considered as an input in this model,” he explained in an introduction to the tool at the time.

Since late 2023, the metric has been printing lower highs while price prints higher highs, creating a “bearish divergence.” While common to previous bull markets, a potential implication is that BTC/USD has already put in a long-term peak.

“Not great,” Edwards reacted while reposting a print of the Index uploaded to X by another user. 

“But... when Bitcoin Macro Index turns positive, I won't be fighting it.”

BTC price metrics struggle to recover

Various analytics sources have concluded that Bitcoin is suffering from macro turbulence this year.

In one of its “ Quicktake ” blog posts this week, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant referenced four onchain metrics currently in a state of flux.

“All of these metrics suggest that Bitcoin is experiencing significant turbulence in the short to mid-term,” contributor Burak Kesmeci said.

“However, none of them indicate that Bitcoin has reached an overheated or cycle-top level.”

The list includes the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) and Net Unspent Profit/Loss (NUPL), as well as the so-called Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) metric, which flipped bearish in February .

For this to change, Kesmeci concluded, IFP should return above its 90-day simple moving average (SMA).

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