Bitcoin’s 12% rally over the week and a surge in related exchange-traded fund inflows have analysts thinking it could soon reach $100,000, but one crypto analyst has said to temper hopes as a key indicator is still giving mixed signals.

“Given that our stablecoin minting indicator has yet to return to high-activity levels, we remain cautious about the sustainability of the current Bitcoin rally,” 10x Research head of research Markus Thielen said in an April 23 markets report.

Stablecoin absence may limit Bitcoin upside

Thielen explained that a measured move from the falling wedge pattern, which traders perceive as a potential bullish reversal signal, shows that Bitcoin ( BTC ) may reclaim $99,000.

He added, however, that “the absence of strong stablecoin inflows raises questions about follow-through.”

Bitcoiners should be cautious over rally as stablecoin indicator lags: Analyst image 0 Markus Thielen is watching the stablecoin minting indicator before confirming the Bitcoin uptrend is sustainable. Source: 10x Research

Bitcoin was trading at $93,133 at the time of writing, up 11.42% over the past seven days, according to CoinMarketCap. 

Thielen told Cointelegraph that stablecoin inflows “tend to correlate strongly with stickier money, while an increase in futures leverage could simply mean that fast traders are taking advantage of a quick move higher.” 

Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows surge, a true “demand-led rally”

It comes as spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US posted inflows of $912.7 million on April 22, the highest level since Jan. 17, according to Farside data.

Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal told Cointelegraph that the inflows suggest “this is a true, demand-led rally. Not just a hot flash of excited futures traders moving price.”

“If the news headlines finally quieten, we could break new highs sooner than everyone thinks. A fast track to $100,000 looks plausible, but things change quickly in a Trump presidency.”

Thielen said if uncertainty continues to decline, “a further acceleration could provide the liquidity needed to support a more sustained rally.”

Related: Bitcoin risks 10%-15% BTC price dip after key rejection near $89K

The crypto market has experienced volatility and broader financial markets since US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs in early February . 

However, Trump’s recent comments have traders speculating that he’s softening his stance on the trade war , with some seeing this as bullish for markets.

Thielen said the $95,000 price level is a key resistance level for Bitcoin and a “potential trigger point for short-stop liquidations.”

He said it could push Bitcoin’s price higher if market strength continues.

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