Bitcoin forecast at $500,000 to $1 million as ETFs and policy shift

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao predicts Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) could reach between $500,000 and $1 million during the current market cycle, citing institutional adoption, government accumulation, and a more favorable U.S. policy as key drivers.

“There’s the ETFs. There’s this institutionalisation of Bitcoin, it’s a positive in terms of price action, obviously. Our bags are up—not the alt-coins as much, but at least Bitcoin is,” Zhao said, speaking on Rug Radio.

“Most of the money in the US is institutional money. Bitcoin is going up because most of the ETFs are Bitcoin-based,” he noted, emphasising that spot Bitcoin ETFs are bringing traditional institutional money into the market.

“It’s also very good validation,” Zhao stated, highlighting the role of governments as countries like El Salvador and Bhutan continue to accumulate Bitcoin as part of their reserves.

El Salvador, for example, has acquired over 6,170 BTC, worth nearly $580 million as of late April 2025.

“They’re smart enough to recognise that buying Bitcoin is a great move, and now other countries will have to follow,” Zhao said, citing the shift in U.S. policy under a pro-crypto administration as another factor.

He suggested that while retail investors have had years to enter the market, the current momentum is driven by large-scale capital and regulatory clarity.

Zhao’s outlook aligns with other industry forecasts that see institutional investment and regulatory developments as central to Bitcoin’s potential surge.

He did not specify a timeline but indicated that these combined factors could fuel a significant rise in Bitcoin’s price during this cycle.

At the time of reporting, the Bitcoin (BTC) price was $96,829.