Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) said it expects $1.5B in lost revenue through 2025 as a result of AI chip export restrictions to China. The company also forecasted $800 million in costs because of chip restrictions on China.
The Federal Register published a notice in April revealing that the U.S. Commerce Department was conducting a national security investigation into imports of semiconductor technology and related products such as chips.
The report also showed the department was investigating the feasibility of increasing domestic semiconductor capacity to reduce reliance on imports.
Trump’s tariffs cast a cloud over major chip stocks
U.S. President Donald Trump imposed “reciprocal” tariffs in April but paused shortly after for 90 days. Trump’s administration also exempted certain tech products like smartphones and chips from the levies. The White House later clarified that chips and the electronics supply chain will not be excluded from Trump’s tariff plans.
The U.S. also added more semiconductor products from Nvidia and AMD to a list of items that are restricted for export to China. AMD said on Tuesday that it expects $1.5 billion in lost revenue through the end of its fiscal year as a result of AI chip export levies to China.
Super Micro said Tuesday it would not provide guidance for its fiscal year 2026 when “visibility” becomes clearer, citing tariff and macroeconomic uncertainty.
Marvell also announced it is postponing its previously scheduled investor day from June 10 to a future date in 2026, following a 4.4% drop in its shares in premarket trade on Tuesday. The firm’s CEO, Matt Murphy, said in a statement that the company has decided to postpone its investor day given the current uncertain macroeconomic environment.
Last month, Samsung acknowledged that it expects demand volatility to be high due to tariff policy changes. A Samsung executive said on the company’s earnings call that companies cannot accurately predict the business impact of tariffs and countermeasures.
Ben Barringer, global technology analyst at Quilter Cheviot, highlighted that the semiconductor sector is grappling with a mix of demand signals and geopolitical headwinds. He believes that Marvell’s decision to postpone its investor day will add a layer of uncertainty at a time when clarity is in short supply.
Nvidia believes the China AI market to hit $50B
Nvidia’s CEO, Jensen Huang, argued that the market for AI chips in China could reach $50 billion in the next couple of years. He believes it’s the reason the U.S. needs to allow companies to access the products from the country.
“It would be a tremendous loss not to be able to address it as an American company. It’s going to bring back revenues. It’s going to bring back taxes. It’s going to create lots of jobs here in the United States.”
-Jensen Huang, Nvidia Chief Executive Officer.
Nvidia also said it would take $5.5 billion in charges in April after the U.S. government limited exports of its H20 artificial intelligence chip to China. Huang confirmed on May 1 a $500 billion investment to manufacture AI chips in the U.S.
Chinese companies have been forced to focus on homegrown technologies due to continued export restrictions by the U.S., with firms like Huawei revealing it’s preparing to test its newest AI processor, Ascend 910D, to replace some high-end products from Nvidia . The tech company also believes that its latest iteration of its Ascend AI processors will be more powerful than Nvidia’s H100.
Huang highlighted that the U.S. should recognize that it is competing in the industry’s race. He also believes it’s time for the U.S. to realize it must do something in its tech industry. Huang believes that trying to hold countries back is not the best move, but the best move is for the U.S. to strengthen its semiconductor industry.
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