XRP’s positive 6-month cost basis defies macro weakness but indicators show slowing momentum

XRP remains the only top crypto asset trading above its 6-month cost basis, signaling relative strength in a weak market.

According to a May 6 post on X by Glassnode, while euphoric buyers of Solana ( SOL ), Ethereum ( ETH ), and Bitcoin ( BTC ) are currently underwater, down 28%, 36%, and 1% respectively, XRP ( XRP ) holders from the December–January rally are still 11% in profit.

Given that the prices of most of the top assets continue to fall below the typical entry levels of mid-term holders, this resilience stands out in the face of broader market weakness. XRP’s stability above its typical entry level of $2.14 suggests that longer-term participants are still confident even as price action cools. Technical indicators, however, show that momentum may be slowing down.

The relative strength index, currently hovering just below the neutral zone and showing waning bullish momentum, has fallen to 49. The moving average convergence divergence has become bearish, and the Stochastic RSI has entered oversold territory. The fact that all short and mid-term moving averages (10–100 days) are in sell territory further supports the idea that upward pressure is fading.

XRP price analysis. Credit: crypto.news

Recent market and on-chain developments suggest underlying accumulation, even in the face of neutral to bearish momentum indicators. On May 7, crypto.news reported that over 300,000 addresses now hold 10,000 XRP or more, a record high. 

According to analysts, this indicates continuous institutional accumulation, which is likely due to speculation regarding a spot XRP exchange-traded fund. In addition, XRP’s current sideways price action is consistent with time and volume-weighted buying strategies used by institutional players to avoid price disruption.

On the macro side, potential tailwinds, such as improving US–China trade relations and expected monetary easing, could support a broader crypto market rebound. Given its impressive Q1 results, buzz around ETFs, and renewed interest in the wake of Ripple’s recent $50 million settlement with the Securities and Exchange Commission, XRP might benefit disproportionately. 

If institutional accumulation persists and XRP holds support close to its cost basis, a breakout above the $2.20–$2.25 resistance could indicate fresh bullish momentum. Weakening RSI and MACD divergence, along with a clear decline below the $2.14 mark, its mid-term cost basis, could lead to capitulation, especially if the overall crypto market sentiment worsens.