ETH-BTC rebounds 38% from April low in first real rally of 2025

The ETH/BTC ratio mounted a comeback in May, reversing months of Ethereum‘s relentless underperformance against Bitcoin.

After reaching an 11-month low of 0.01805 on April 21, ETH/BTC surged to 0.02501 by May 15, marking a 38.6% recovery in less than a month and a 17% rise in the past seven days. The sharp ascent marks Ethereum’s first showing of relative strength since early February and reopens the question of whether ETH can regain at least some lost ground after a difficult start to 2025.

The ETH/BTC rebound came as ETH cleared the $2,000 psychological barrier for the first time since early March. From May 8 to May 15, ETH jumped 15.8%, climbing from $2,206 to $2,554. In contrast, Bitcoin slipped 0.9% over the same time stretch, dipping from $103,641 to $102,680. The divergence confirms that ETH/BTC’s rise reflects real capital rotation into Ethereum rather than simply riding Bitcoin’s coattails.

ETH/BTC ratio in 2025 (Source: TradingView)

While the ratio remains 55.6% below its June 2024 high of 0.05631, the momentum shift is still important. ETH/BTCnow trades comfortably above its 30-day SMA of 0.02031 after spending most of the past three months beneath it. This stretch of sustained strength, twelve consecutive closes above the moving average, marks a structural break from the collapse seen through March and April, when Ethereum lagged not just Bitcoin but the entire market.

Several signals point to the possibility that this move could carry further. First, the ETH/BTC rally began from an extreme low that historically correlated with capitulation and eventual reversal. The 0.0180 low printed in April matches levels last seen during the March 2020 crash, when pandemic fears crushed risk assets across the board.

Second, ETH’s surge over $2,000 seems to have unlocked a wave of speculative interest that had been absent earlier this year. The largest single-day ETH/BTC gain this month (a 7.1% jump on May 9) came immediately after ETH/USD reclaimed $2,000, suggesting that traders viewed the level as a crucial sentiment trigger.

ETH/BTC ratio from May 11, 2019, to May 15, 2025 (Source: TradingView)

Notably, the rebound appears specific to Ethereum. Bitcoin open interest, funding rates, and perpetuals positioning have remained relatively subdued in May, lacking the excitement that would typically accompany a full-blown alt-season rotation. This selective enthusiasm implies that catalysts tied to Ethereum itself, such as pending ETF deliberations, upcoming roadmap deployments, or renewed institutional interest, could be driving the move rather than generalized risk appetite. If true, ETH could continue to outperform even if Bitcoin consolidates or trades sideways into early summer.

However, the recovery remains fragile, and a failure to defend the newly recaptured 0.024–0.025 zone would call into question whether the rally stems from genuine fresh allocation or is merely a product of short covering and tactical mean reversion. Markets have a long history of violent short squeezes following deep selloffs, only to relapse once initial buying exhaustion sets in. The next several weeks will be critical to understand the rally’s depth, especially as macro volatility reenters the scene with US CPI figures in June and key Federal Reserve minutes later this month.

Even after the recovery, ETH/BTC’s deep discount compared to last year shows just how far sentiment fell. From the June 2024 peak of 0.05631, the ratio collapsed more than 68% to its April low, a drawdown sharper than seen in many altcoins during the same period. Much of Ethereum’s weakness in late 2024 and early 2025 was tied to BTC dominance, as the success of spot Bitcoin ETFs concentrated flows into BTC at the expense of broader crypto markets. With BTC/USD stalling below $105,000 and ETF inflows plateauing, Ethereum may finally have room to breathe.

Still, the ratio has a lot of ground to cover. ETH/BTC would need to rise another 42% from current levels just to recover its January 2025 starting point at 0.0355. For long-term holders, the recent bounce is encouraging but not yet conclusive. Broader confirmation would require Ethereum to sustain outperformance even in the face of larger market volatility and renewed Bitcoin bids.

In the short term, ETH’s ability to hold its gains against Bitcoin while navigating potentially turbulent macro conditions will set the tone for the summer. A decisive weekly close above 0.025 would mark the strongest finish since early March and could begin to drag systematic allocators (funds and products that rebalance crypto portfolios based on market cap or equal weightings) back toward Ethereum.

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