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Bloomberg Analyst: High Gold-Silver Ratio Signals Potential Double Loss Scenario for Risk Assets

Bloomberg Analyst: High Gold-Silver Ratio Signals Potential Double Loss Scenario for Risk Assets

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金色财经金色财经2025/05/21 12:45

On May 21, it was reported that Mike McGlone, a senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Industry Research, stated that the gold-silver ratio typically peaks when the Federal Reserve ends its easing policy—on May 20, the gold-silver ratio reached 100, approaching the highest historical quarterly closing level (113 in the first quarter of 2020). Unlike past peak periods, the current situation lacks the key element of Federal Reserve easing, which may indicate a double loss scenario for risk assets. The current gold-silver ratio (around 100) has limited predictive significance for economic trends—if the gold-silver ratio, which reached 100 on May 20, remains above 91.5 at the close of 2025, it will set a record for the highest year-end ratio, which usually indicates an unfavorable global economic outlook. Peaks in this ratio were observed during the U.S. recessions of 1990-91 and 2020, but this time a critical precondition is missing, namely, the Federal Reserve's easing policy has not yet bottomed out.

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