Rumors circulated that xAI Corp would get involved with prediction markets. The X team denied the news of an existing partnership, but did not rule out some form of prediction activity.
The X team cautiously explained xAI has not set any partnerships with prediction market companies. Rumors circulated that xAI would get involved in prediction markets, with speculations on potential partners.
X disabused the news of a partnership, but stated that the company was discussing the topic and reaching out to the industry.
The prediction market industry is one more piece of the puzzle in the drive to turn X into an ‘everything app’. Social media is already the leader of trends and news, making it a perfect fit for prediction markets.
It was X that made Polymarket even more famous for its successful prediction of the US Presidential election winner in November 2024. However, xAI has not picked out Polymarket or any other prediction market representative. The rumors on Polymarket and Augur came from the crypto community and were also not confirmed.
The expectation for xAI branching into prediction markets came from the attempts to add finance and banking to the X app.
Kalshi sparked rumors of xAI partnership
The original rumors of a partnership originated with the Kalshi prediction market, a smaller platform compared to Polymarket and Augur.
The Kalshi betting platform peaked in Q4, 2024, and retained higher baseline volumes into 2025. | Source: Dune Analytics
Kalshi uses Circle’s USDC for bets, receiving up to $25M in deposits during the US election season. In early 2025, Kalshi achieved monthly volumes of around $13M, with a peak of $26M in October 2024.
On Tuesday, Kalshi briefly posted a message about an eventual partnership, but deleted the message within hours.
Kalshi suggested xAI may integrate AI-driven insights, including analysis of news and social media data from X. The AI-enhanced overview was aimed at enhancing betting decisions on current events, especially political outcomes and economic indicators. Kalshi’s message remained unconfirmed officially, and so far, X has fully denied any connection to the platform.
X seen as turning into a sports betting program
Crypto prediction markets gained fame on X through political events betting. However, the 2024 US Presidential elections were an outlier in terms of mass interest and dedicated whale bets.
The real engine of prediction markets is sports betting, which has so far spread outside social media due to regional restrictions. However, X is already hosting one of the largest online audiences, which may adopt new forms of sports betting.
The global sports betting industry is expanding, expecting $77.18B in revenues for 2025. Crypto betting platforms are much smaller. Even Polymarket has an open interest of only $114M, down from over $456M in November 2024. Adding a social media and AI component may be a novelty, since the real bottleneck is organic user demand.
The exact nature of partnerships and synergies with xAI remains uncertain. Prediction markets are trying to involve AI for data gathering and analysis, while AI agent producers train models with predictive features and analytics.
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