Bitcoin supply near total profitability as institutional demand drives value flows

Bitcoin reached a new all-time high on May 22, pulling almost the entire supply into profit.

Data from Checkonchain showed that 99.82 % of circulating Bitcoin sat above cost on May 21, up from 74.37% during the early April drawdown. The short-term cohort logged an even steeper swing after its supply in profit collapsed from 89.98% at the beginning of the year to 2.07% on April 6, then rebounded to 98.51% by May 21.

Bitcoin’s short-term holder supply in profit from Jan. 1 to May 22 (Source: Checkonchain)

Whiplash like this usually indicates a heavy retail chase, but other data shows the price spike was powered by a different engine this time. ETFs and derivatives are the crucial offset here.

Since January, spot Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed more than $8.4 billion, and all those units sit in addresses less than six months old. Custodians shuffle coins between cold storage and authorized participants during each creation or redemption, minting fresh UTXOs and inflating the short-term holder bucket even though the end buyers are funds, pensions, and large advisers rather than day traders.

The same process explains why the transfer-volume 30-day average crossed above its 365-day peer on April 28 and climbed to $11.91 billion by May 21. A lack of significant inflows to spot exchanges shows that most of this volume never touches the retail market, pointing to primary-market activity rather than spot trading.

Bitcoin’s transfer volume momentum from March 1 to May 22 (Source: Checkonchain)

Derivatives reinforce the institutional footprint. Futures open interest across exchanges is at an all-time high, with CME accounting for more than $10 billion, double its share at the start of the year, and options volume on Deribit rotating decisively toward large block prints.

However, the cost of leverage remains modest. Daily funding rates printed 0.016 % on January 2 when Bitcoin sat near $102,000, fell below zero on March 2 during the slide below $90,000, and worked back to 0.0109% on May 22.

The 30-day mean is 0.0045%, roughly half the January peak and far from levels that sparked liquidations in past cycles. A mild premium paired with record open interest is the hallmark of basis trades: managers seek spot exposure through ETFs while shorting perpetual or dated futures, collecting the spread rather than betting on price direction.

Average funding rates for Bitcoin perpetual futures from March 1 to May 22 (Source: CryptoQuant)

Spot exchanges, by contrast, show restraint. Coinbase and Binance order books recovered only a fraction of the depth lost during April’s sell-off, and aggregate taker volume sits below March averages. That split, heavy institutional absorption against lukewarm retail turnover, helps explain why the price climbed without the retail euphoria widely seen near previous tops. It also alters the meaning of those near-perfect profitability readings.

Similar levels preceded swift drawdowns in 2017 and early 2021 as unhedged newcomers cashed out. Today, a large share of the profitable supply sits inside mandates that can’t be liquidated as easily as spot positions; they unwind through creations and hedge rolls.

However, none of it rules out turbulence in the short term. Profit saturation gives every holder an easy decision to sell if macro news sours and the short-term cohort still contains retail wallets that bought Bitcoin’s spring breakout. A sharp shrink in ETF inflows or a flip of CME’s annualized basis into backwardation would strip away the balance-sheet bid currently anchoring price.

Funding above 0.02% on a multi-day stretch would likewise show that long leverage is replacing spot absorption, reviving the liquidation spiral risk that plagued earlier booms. For now, though, the structure looks orderly: demand channels through regulated products, hedges keep margin costs contained, and on-chain settlement reflects large transfers between custodians rather than exchange flows.

Bitcoin’s new ATH stands on a foundation significantly different than the 2017 or 2021 run-ups. Almost every coin is above cost, but retail investors, the cohort most exposed in past blow-offs, are no longer steering the market. Instead, large trading desks, ETFs, and derivatives traders hold the wheel, financing positions with leverage, and parking collateral with custodians. That lineup does not make Bitcoin bulletproof, but it eases the odds of a flash crash unless those same desks pull liquidity simultaneously.

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