Indicators show retail remains sidelined as Bitcoin trades at new highs

Despite Bitcoin (BTC) reaching a new all-time high at $111,965.80 on May 22, retail adoption and on-chain gauges indicate speculative leverage has not stretched market conditions.

VanEck head of digital assets research Matt Sigel shared App-store data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence, showing crypto-platform downloads fell 14% year-over-year in April.

Binance and Crypto.com downloads dropped 29% and 41%, respectively, with Coinbase off 16%. Sigel said the figures imply individual investors “missed the rally” or played it through stocks, noting that equity proxies such as mining shares absorbed some of the flow.

Furthermore, Sigel shared a Google Trends chart showing that searches for Bitcoin were only slightly above 25% on May 20, right before BTC climbed to a new all-time high.

The decline in apps related to retail trading contrasts with spot-Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), whose combined inflows reached $44.5 billion, according to Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.

The movement continues from the record lifetime inflows of $40.3 billion that US-traded Bitcoin ETFs registered on May 8. This suggests the latest leg higher has leaned on institutional demand rather than broad retail participation.

On-chain signals show limited speculative heat

According to CryptoQuant Korea community manager Crypto Dan, funding rates across major derivatives venues have risen but remain well below levels that preceded corrections in March 2024 and November 2024.

In a May 22 report, he noted that futures open interest and liquidations also trail prior peaks, indicating modest use of leverage.

On-chain analysis of coin age supports that view. The share of BTC changing hands within one week to one month, often associated with momentum trading, has climbed only marginally despite the price record. Meanwhile, long-dormant coins continue to hold firm.

Crypto Dan added that whales logged fewer profit-taking transactions than during previous tops, signaling restrained selling pressure.

He also mentioned the US-traded spot Bitcoin ETFs, which recorded positive flows for eight consecutive sessions through May 21, bringing their collective holdings above 1.2 million BTC. 

The steady bid and muted retail froth could indicate that price discovery may extend if risk appetite broadens.

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