Bitcoin Hits Another All-Time High, Are Hodlers Starting to Sell?

Original Title: Are Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Starting to Sell?

Original Author: Matt Crosby, Bitcoin Magazine

Original Translation: BitpushNews

After a period of volatility, Bitcoin has now reclaimed the $100,000 milestone and hit a new all-time high, injecting fresh confidence into the market. However, as the price rises, a key question arises: are Bitcoin's most experienced and successful holders — long-term holders — starting to sell? This article will analyze how on-chain data reveals the behavior of long-term holders and whether recent profit-taking is cause for concern or simply a healthy part of the Bitcoin market cycle.

Signs of Profit Taking

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) provides real-time insight into the network-wide realized profits. Focusing on the past few weeks, we can clearly observe an upward trend in realized profits. The clustering of green bars indicates that a significant number of investors are indeed selling Bitcoin to realize profits, especially as the price surged from the $74,000–$75,000 range to a new high above $100,000.

Figure 1: The Spent Output Profit Ratio indicates significant profit-taking in the recent period.

However, while this may raise concerns about overhead resistance in the short term, it must be placed in the broader on-chain context to understand. This behavior is not uncommon in a bull market and cannot be solely taken as a signal of a cycle top.

Long-Term Holder Supply Continues to Grow

The "Long-Term Holder Supply" refers to the total amount of Bitcoin held by wallets with a holding period of over 155 days, and despite the price surge, this metric continues to climb. This trend does not necessarily mean that new buying behavior is occurring at present but rather indicates that Bitcoin is aging over time into a long-term holding state, untouched or unsold.

Figure 2: Bitcoin's Long-Term Holder Supply shows a significant increase.

In other words, many investors who bought in late 2024 or early 2025 are still holding onto their coins, transitioning into long-term holders. This is a healthy dynamic typically seen in the early or mid stages of a bull market and has not yet shown signs of widespread distribution.

HODL Waves Analysis

To further dive into the analysis, we utilized HODL Waves data, which categorizes wallets based on the age of the held coins. Focusing on wallets holding for 6 months or longer, we found that over 70% of the Bitcoin supply is currently controlled by mid-to-long-term holders.

Figure 3: HODL Waves analysis shows that mid-to-long-term investors hold the majority share of Bitcoin.

Interestingly, although this proportion remains high, it has started to decrease slightly, indicating that some long-term holders may be starting to sell, even as the supply held by long-term holders continues to grow. The primary driver of this long-term supply growth seems to be a gradual "aging" of short-term holders into the 155+ day holding range, rather than large-scale buying from new funds.

Figure 4: Long-term holder supply change rate shows an inverse relationship with Bitcoin price.

By using raw data provided by the Bitcoin Magazine Pro API, we analyzed the balance change rate of long-term holders categorized by wallet age. When this indicator experiences a significant decline, it often aligns with historical cycle tops. Conversely, sharp increases in this indicator typically correspond to market bottoms and intense accumulation phases.

Short-Term Changes and Distribution Ratio

To enhance the accuracy of these signals, data can be further sliced by comparing "recent market entrants (0–1 month)" with "mid-term holders (1–5 years)." This breakdown of wallet age distribution offers more frequent and real-time insights into distribution behavior.

Figure 5: Wallet age distribution ratios provide valuable market insights.

We found that when the ratio of 1–5 year holders compared to newcomers rapidly declines, it often aligns with historical Bitcoin price tops. Conversely, when this ratio quickly rises, indicating more Bitcoin flowing into the hands of seasoned investors, it is often a precursor to significant price rallies.

Changes in long-term investor behavior are one of the most effective ways to assess market sentiment and the sustainability of price movements. Historical data shows that long-term holders, by buying during panics and holding long-term, often outperform short-term traders in terms of profitability. By analyzing Bitcoin's age distribution structure, we can more accurately identify market tops and bottoms without relying on price trends or short-term sentiment.

Conclusion

Currently, it appears that long-term holders are only exhibiting slight selling behavior, far from the scale seen at previous cycle tops. There is indeed some profit-taking occurring, but the pace seems entirely manageable, indicative of a healthy market environment. Considering the current bull market phase and the participation of both institutions and retail investors, the data suggests that we are still in a structurally strong phase. With continued inflows of new capital, there is still room for further price appreciation.

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