Bitcoin Faces Pressure But Holds Strong Fundamentals

While bitcoin confidently surpassed $105,000, a significant pullback disrupts this momentum and awakens investor doubts. However, far from a collapse, several technical indicators suggest a controlled consolidation. In an ecosystem where volatility is the norm, this retracement phase reveals a subtle tension between speculation and structural soundness. More than a mere hiccup, the current situation illustrates the precarious yet strategic balance the market is trying to maintain, at the crossroads of bullish signals and necessary breathing phases.

Bitcoin under pressure : a controlled pullback rather than a collapse

Massive liquidations abruptly ended the recent euphoria in the crypto market, causing a sharp drop.

Bitcoin thus fell 4.5 % over the week, currently trading around $103,500, with the possibility of a temporary return below the symbolic $100,000 mark. While this decline triggers concern, fundamental data do not indicate a sudden trend reversal.

According to CryptoQuant, the Net Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL) indicator, which measures realized gains and losses on bitcoin transactions, shows a relatively contained situation.

“Profit-taking is currently moderate,” explains the analysis platform, and much lower than extreme levels observed in March and November 2024, periods marking previous cycle peaks.

Additionally, several key technical levels could act as buffers in the event of a deeper pullback :

• $96,000 : this is the realized price of short-term holders ( Glassnode data ), a historically robust threshold in bullish cycles, below which bitcoin generally does not stay long ;
• $102,000 to $104,500 : this is the support zone identified by Altcoin Sherpa in a post on the X platform (formerly Twitter) on May 30, where BTC consolidated before its last bullish impulse ;
• $102,700 : corresponds to the Kijun line of the Ichimoku indicator, as noted by analyst Titan of Crypto on X, a technical level closely watched by traders.

These technical and on-chain elements converge towards a cautious but reassuring reading. The ongoing pullback fits more into a breathing phase than a sudden market reversal scenario.

A beneficial purge on derivatives : towards market stabilization ?

Beyond on-chain data, the real catalyst of the current situation could be the derivatives markets. In just a few days, $3.7 billion of open interest was wiped out on BTC futures contracts.

This sharp drop is directly the result of a domino effect on leveraged positions, triggered by bitcoin’s price falling from $108,000 to $103,500. Rather than a sign of structural weakness, several observers interpret this purge as a healthy market reset.

This decline in open interest reflects the liquidation of leveraged speculative positions, a common phenomenon when the market becomes too euphoric.

By mechanically reducing the overall leverage level, this dynamic moderates bitcoin’s volatility and places the market back into a more stable configuration. This is often a necessary passage after a too rapid or unbalanced rise phase.

In the longer term, this stabilization could prepare the ground for a sustainable recovery. Liquidation of speculative excesses reduces selling pressure from margin calls and could reinforce the legitimacy of a potential technical rebound.

This brutal but controlled adjustment of the derivatives market may prove beneficial. By eliminating excess leverage, it cleans the ground for a more resilient BTC better supported by its fundamentals. Although a flash drop below $100,000 remains possible, the probability of a deep and lasting correction now appears limited. The market, in short, could well exhale… before taking off again.