Seyffart: Solana ETF Gets 90% Odds, XRP & LTC Close Behind

The odds of getting SEC approval for Solana, Litecoin, and XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have never looked stronger. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart says the momentum around altcoin ETFs is real and Q4 2025 could mark a turning point.

Seyffart, known for tracking ETF developments closely, cited growing optimism following the SEC’s recent acknowledgment of multiple 19b-4 filings submitted by major asset managers, including Grayscale, VanEck, Franklin Templeton, and 21Shares. 

While the timeline for final decisions remains fluid, Seyffart estimates that Solana (SOL) and Litecoin (LTC) ETFs each have a 90% chance of approval, with Ripple’s XRP ETF at 85%, and Dogecoin ETF odds at 80%.

Speaking on June 10, Seyffart added that SEC staff have begun active dialogue with potential spot Solana ETF issuers, specifically regarding in-kind redemptions and staking provisions. 

Katherine Ross of Blockworks earlier reported this ongoing back-and-forth, which Seyffart confirmed, noting that the SEC appears open to allowing staking within ETF structures, a major shift if finalized.

In Seyffart’s words: “Conversations around the nuances of staking solana in ETFs is getting underway between SEC and hopeful Solana ETF issuers.” His analysis also draws from how regulators currently view these digital assets, especially those already under CFTC oversight via crypto futures markets.

Seyffart’s internal ranking puts Solana and Litecoin at the top with 90% odds, followed by XRP and Dogecoin at 85% and 80% respectively. Cardano (ADA), Polkadot (DOT), and Avalanche (AVAX) are estimated at 75%, while Sui (SUI) lags at 60%. TRON (TRX) is still considered outside the active review process.

Meanwhile, betting markets are echoing these analyst projections. On Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform gaining popularity with crypto-native traders, participants are pricing in a 91% chance for Solana ETF approval in 2025, an 87% chance for Ripple’s XRP ETF, and an 80% probability for Litecoin ETF approval.

The trend is unmistakable; there’s now broad alignment between institutional analysts and retail market bettors. For investors tracking Solana ETF news, XRP ETF developments, or the broader altcoin ETF race, Q4 2025 is emerging as the critical window.

Seyffart has consistently been one of the more accurate voices in the ETF space, particularly when it comes to crypto fund approval cycles. His confidence in a Dogecoin ETF might raise eyebrows, but with memecoins still driving large volumes, the idea isn’t as far-fetched as it once seemed.

If the SEC delivers green lights on these ETFs, it will mark the next phase of crypto market legitimacy. First came the Bitcoin ETFs. Then Ethereum. And now, altcoins like Solana, Litecoin, XRP, and yes, even Dogecoin, are lining up for their turn on Wall Street.