‘Volatility is the only certainty’: Analysts say on bitcoin dip after Israel-Iran tensions spark $1.1 billion in crypto liquidations

Israel’s preemptive airstrike on Iran reignited market uncertainty on Friday, prompting traders to seek downside protection, QCP Capital wrote in a June 13 update.

Cryptocurrencies and U.S. equity futures declined following the news, while gold and oil climbed as investors rotated into traditional safe havens. The GMCI 30 Index fell more than 5% as altcoin dropped sharply and bitcoin briefly hit $103,802 on some exchanges, according to The Block's price page .

“Risk assets are experiencing classic flight-to-safety selling while commodities and safe havens surge,” Marcin Kazmierczak, Co-founder and COO at RedStone, told The Block via email. He warned that further escalation or diplomatic breakthroughs would drive near-term volatility. “For now, volatility is the only certainty,” Kazmierczak added.

Bitcoin had recovered to $105,000 at the time of writing, per The Block’s price page, but not before $1.1 billion in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated. Long positions accounted for roughly $1 billion of the total, with $441 million tied to bitcoin. The single largest liquidation — a BTC/USDT trade on Binance — was valued at $201.3 million, according to CoinGlass . 

Long-term view

QCP Capital cautioned that prolonged conflict could trigger a global oil supply shock. CoinBureau founder Nic Puckrin echoed this, warning that Iran potentially closing the Strait of Hormuz — responsible for nearly 20% of global oil transit — could fuel risk-off sentiment and further impact crypto markets.

“If this happens over the weekend, the market that trades 24/7 – crypto – will once again take the hit,” Puckrin said.

Still, Dr. Kirill Kretov, a senior automation expert at CoinPanel, maintained that bitcoin’s long-term structure remains bullish. “Should we really care about the current price dip? Not really,” Kretov told The Block.

The analyst said Friday’s pullback was within expected ranges of crypto volatility. He also suggested that large market participants may have used the negative news to push the price of bitcoin lower and accumulate at more favorable prices. “It’s a game of liquidity and positioning,” Kretov noted.

CoinBureau's Puckrin agreed, adding that weakness in the U.S. dollar index (DXY), which recently set a three-year low below 100, may prove a more significant driver for bitcoin than Middle East tensions.

“Over the long term, what matters most for Bitcoin isn’t geopolitics, it’s the US dollar index. It’s clear USD is only going in one direction, and Bitcoin typically goes in the opposite direction."