Reason Why XRP Price May Crash Below $2 Despite Today’s 4% Gains

• A newly formed death cross signals bearish pressure, suggesting a potential XRP price decline in the coming weeks.
  
• XRP continues to trade inside a descending triangle pattern, reinforcing bearish market structure.
  
• CoinGlass data reveals an increase in long positions, indicating potential overconfidence and risk of mass liquidations.

XRP gained 4% in the past 24 hours, but according to experts, the short-term recovery might be concealing a bigger fall. The token remains under huge pressure since technical analysis deems the recent upswing as potentially temporary relief rather than an extended trend. 

A new death cross—a technical pattern on a chart where the 50-day moving average drops below the 200-day moving average—has appeared on XRP’s chart, and historically, such patterns have usually resulted in massive bearish shifts in market sentiment.

XRP Breakdown Looms Amid Bearish Pattern and Leveraged Longs

Despite today’s moderate price rise, XRP continues to trade within a descending triangle pattern—a bearish formation that generally signals a price breakdown is more likely than a breakout. The lower highs and consistent support around the $2 level imply weakening momentum from buyers. If the pattern confirms, analysts believe XRP could fall sharply below $2, potentially triggering a wave of stop-loss orders and cascading liquidations across derivative markets.

This structural weakness is being amplified by positioning data from derivatives tracking platforms. According to the latest figures from Coinglass, a large number of traders are opening long positions on XRP, expecting upward momentum to continue. This increase in bullish leverage raises red flags among analysts, who caution that such unmatched optimism in the face of bearish technicals could create the conditions for a lucrative short squeeze, but one that works against those holding long positions. If prices fall suddenly, those overly leveraged trades may face forced liquidations, compounding downward pressure.

Here, the death cross pattern of high quality combined with unprecedented overexposure to long positions creates a high-risk scenario. Traders should move cautiously into the market, especially given the overall uncertainty around regulatory developments and macroeconomic twists, and navigate today’s short-term rally, although significant, may ultimately become more of an exit point for risk-averse investors rather than an entry point for new buyers.

Death Cross Formation Could Signal Prolonged Weakness

The appearance of the death cross—a groundbreaking indicator often linked to prolonged bearish periods—has not occurred in isolation. Historically, XRP has shown sharp corrections after such technical developments. Past formations of this kind have coincided with 20% to 40% pullbacks, particularly when accompanied by heavy speculation and overleveraged positioning.

What makes this particular instance notable is the phenomenal misalignment between market sentiment and technical structure. While sentiment appears buoyant due to recent gains, the underlying trend remains down. This divergence increases the risk of a top-tier correction if speculative pressure unwinds quickly.

Long Positions Near Critical Levels as Traders Bet Against the Trend

Data from Coinglass shows a sharp rise in long positions on XRP futures. Many traders seem to be ignoring the risk posed by the triangle formation and the death cross. This kind of positioning could backfire if the market moves against the majority. A sudden dip below support levels could force liquidations and reinforce the downtrend. Analysts consider this scenario to be both dynamic and high-yield for short sellers but risky for bullish traders.

Bottom Line

While XRP’s 4% daily gain offers a brief moment of optimism, the broader outlook remains bearish. The alignment of a descending triangle pattern, a newly formed death cross, and aggressive long positioning creates a potentially revolutionary setup for a decline rather than a rally. Market participants are urged to monitor technical indicators closely, as today’s rally may be the calm before a deeper, more sustained storm.