Structural bitcoin demand persists despite Fed tightening and geopolitical risks, analyst says

A hawkish Federal Reserve, thin summer liquidity, and Middle East turmoil continue to weigh on the bitcoin market. Yet, fresh corporate buying keeps the longer-term outlook bullish, BRN lead analyst Valentin Fournier said.

On Thursday, Semler Scientific (SMLR) outlined plans to boost its treasury from 4,449 BTC to 100,500 BTC by 2027 . The medical-device maker will raise cash through convertible notes and at-the-market share sales, employing tactics pioneered by Michael Saylor's firm, Strategy, as well as other players such as Bitdeer and DDC Enterprise .

“While the market remains cautious and short-term sentiment is dominated by geopolitical uncertainty, we view the Semler Scientific news as a major signal of structural demand,” Fournier wrote.

At roughly $105,900 per coin, Semler’s bitcoin stash is worth about $462 million, yet the firm’s market cap hovers near $420 million. Fournier said the discount to net asset value could attract investors seeking direct exposure to bitcoin.

“With its current market cap still undervalued relative to holdings, this plan could multiply its valuation by over 20x, showcasing the increasing corporate appetite for Bitcoin and reinforcing the long-term bullish case for institutional-led demand,” the BRN analyst told The Block via email.

Still, a regulatory overhang lingers. The U.S. Justice Department has been investigating Semler since 2017 over potential False Claims Act breaches related to its QuantaFlo test, and settlement talks stalled in February.

Meanwhile, some analysts flagged systemic hazards reminiscent of 2021’s boom-and-bust cycle. However, while these risks exist, Presto Head of Research Peter Chung stated the crypto treasury concerns are more nuanced than previous “ boom-and-bust cycles .” Chung said the current wave looks healthier because firms are shunning crypto-collateralized loans that once magnified downside. Limited data also undercuts fears of an “overstretched premium” that could tempt activist investors, he added.

Crypto holds steady after US holiday

In other news, crypto markets held steady on Friday despite the absence of exchange-traded fund flows from yesterday. The GMCI 30 Index notched a slight uptick, as bitcoin floated around $106,000. Generally, cryptocurrencies traded sideways across majors and altcoins, according to The Block's price page .

Fournier said current market conditions may encourage accumulation while investors anticipate a future uptrend. “We maintain a high allocation to BTC, expecting further upside as more corporates follow Semler’s lead. Current pessimism provides a potential accumulation window ahead of renewed bullish catalysts.”