U.S. Decisions Shaping Crypto, But Not as Much as Retail's Constant OverreactionsThe Fed’s Latest Move: A Pause, Not a PivotThe GENIUS Act: Big Momen

Throughout 2025, it has undeniably felt like every move made by U.S. policymakers has the potential to shake up the crypto world. Whether it’s the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady, lawmakers pushing forward new rules for stablecoins, or Congress trying to pass a giant budget bill, traders are glued to the headlines. But here’s the twist: it's not just about what these decisions are — it’s about how confident the public feels they’ll turn out. If investors think something is going to be good for the economy (and crypto), prices tend to jump before the event even happens. And if reality doesn’t match the hype? Well, that’s where things can get choppy. Let’s break down three major developments in June 2025 and how they’re already moving the markets — especially for Bitcoin and altcoins.

The Fed’s Latest Move: A Pause, Not a Pivot

On June 18, the Federal Reserve — led by Jerome Powell — announced that interest rates would stay put at 4.25–4.50%. This wasn’t a huge surprise, but plenty of traders were hoping for a clearer sign that rate cuts are coming soon. Powell made it clear the Fed’s still playing it safe, waiting to see how inflation and the broader economy continue to shape up before making any bold moves.

Crypto’s reaction? Pretty quiet at first. Bitcoin and Ethereum didn’t move much, since most people had already expected the decision. But even a “non-event” like this says a lot. It shows that investors aren’t panicking — and they’re also not rushing into risky assets just yet. So for now, we’re stuck in a wait-and-see mode.

That said, coins like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) tend to be more stable in times like this. But some more volatile assets — like Solana (SOL), Avalanche (AVAX), and Chainlink (LINK) — can swing harder based on hopes for looser monetary policy. If inflation keeps cooling off, and Powell hints at a cut later this year, these could be the coins to watch.

Right now, we’re seeing more of a “sell the rumor, buy the news” effect. Expectations were low, so when Powell didn’t say anything negative, markets actually breathed a little sigh of relief. But if we go another few months without signs of rate cuts, the optimism could wear off fast — especially for the riskier plays.

The GENIUS Act: Big Moment for Stablecoins

The GENIUS Act is a brand-new bill passed by the U.S. Senate on June 17, aiming to finally bring some solid rules to the stablecoin space. It’s meant to make sure tokens like USDC and USDT are actually backed by real dollars and supervised by trusted regulators. If it gets through the House too, this would be the first time stablecoins get full federal approval and guidelines.

Traders and companies tied to stablecoins were all over this. Circle, which issues USDC, saw a nice bump in confidence, and its equity reportedly surged by 30–35%. Coinbase, a major partner of Circle, also enjoyed a healthy stock jump of over 17%. Ethereum even got a bit of a lift since a lot of stablecoins run on its network. Across the board, the vibe was that clearer rules could open the doors for more institutions to jump into crypto safely.

Not everyone’s throwing a party though. Some in the crypto community are worried the bill is too soft on big players and could benefit folks with political connections more than regular users. There’s chatter that parts of the bill might quietly favor projects linked to the Trump family or others with influence. So while it’s a step forward for regulation, it’s also kicked off a debate over fairness and transparency.

The price action so far suggests we’ve already seen some “buy the rumor, sell the news” behavior. A lot of the gains came in before the Senate vote. Now the market’s waiting to see what the House does. If the bill passes and new partnerships or government-backed pilots follow, there could be another leg up. But if momentum stalls, we might already be near the short-term top.

The “Big Beautiful Bill” and Bitcoin’s Inflation Hedge Narrative

The Big Beautiful Bill, officially called the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, is a massive federal spending package that covers everything from infrastructure and military to tax breaks and incentives. The House passed it in May, and the Senate is still debating final tweaks, aiming to wrap it up by early July. It’s being promoted as a way to strengthen the economy, but many experts say it could also blow up the federal deficit.

This is where crypto — and Bitcoin in particular — comes into the picture. Whenever there’s talk of rising debt or more money printing, people start looking for ways to protect their purchasing power. Bitcoin has long been seen as a hedge against inflation, and this bill is fueling that story all over again. On Twitter, Reddit, and even financial podcasts, the vibe is clear: “If the government’s going to spend big, I want to hold assets that can’t be inflated.”

Alongside Bitcoin, there’s also been renewed interest in tokens that promote financial sovereignty — like Monero (XMR) for privacy, MakerDAO (MKR) for decentralized finance, and even algorithmic stablecoins trying to offer alternatives to fiat. Some politically-themed meme coins are getting attention too, but that’s likely more about timing than fundamentals.

Unlike the previous two topics, this one seems to be creating a “buy the rumor, buy the news” scenario — at least so far. People worried about inflation are stacking sats (Bitcoin), not waiting for confirmation. But that could change quickly if the final version of the bill includes crypto-specific taxes or regulations. For now, though, the idea that this bill could push people toward Bitcoin seems to be holding.

So… What Really Moves Prices? The News or the Crowd?

At the end of the day, it’s not just the decisions being made in Washington that affect crypto — it’s how people react to them. Traders, especially big players (aka whales), are constantly trying to read the room. If they sense the crowd is excited, they’ll ride that wave. If they sense fear or hesitation, they might sell into strength and trigger a pullback. That’s why monitoring behavior and sentiment is so crucial. And at Santiment, we’ll keep tracking what matters — not just headlines, but the real-time shifts in crowd mood and whale activity — to help our community stay one step ahead.

-----

Free two-week trials to Sanbase PRO (to access all mentioned Santiment data in this article, and plenty more) are

-----

-----

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in the post are for general informational purposes only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual or on any specific security or investment product.