Bitcoin AVIV Ratio and Power Law Model Suggest Possible Cycle Top Near $330,000

• Bitcoin’s AVIV Ratio and power law models suggest a potential surge to $330,000, signaling a significant cycle top ahead in the cryptocurrency market.

• Institutional accumulation is intensifying, with major players like BlackRock and Metaplanet strategically increasing their Bitcoin holdings, reflecting growing confidence in BTC’s long-term value.

• According to COINOTAG sources, the AVIV Ratio historically marks market cycle peaks, and current data indicates Bitcoin’s price momentum has yet to reach this critical threshold.

Bitcoin’s AVIV Ratio and power law models forecast a potential $330,000 cycle top, driven by strategic institutional accumulation and sustained market momentum.

Bitcoin’s AVIV Ratio Signals Room for Further Price Growth

The AVIV Ratio, a sophisticated metric comparing Bitcoin’s active capitalization to its realized capitalization, remains below its historical peak levels, suggesting that the current market cycle has not yet reached its zenith. This ratio has reliably indicated previous cycle tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021, coinciding with Bitcoin prices of approximately $1,200, $20,000, and $69,000 respectively. The current AVIV Ratio’s position below the +3σ mean deviation implies that Bitcoin could potentially climb to around $330,000 before signaling a market top.

This metric offers a unique perspective on investor behavior, balancing the amount of capital actively moving in the market against the total invested capital locked in over time. A rising AVIV Ratio typically reflects increased trading activity and profit-taking, often preceding significant price corrections. However, while historically robust, this indicator’s predictive power may vary under different market conditions, necessitating cautious interpretation.

Institutional Accumulation Drives Bitcoin’s Market Dynamics

Data from CryptoQuant reveals a notable decline in Bitcoin holdings on over-the-counter (OTC) desks, dropping from 166,500 BTC to 137,400 BTC in 2025. This trend indicates a strategic accumulation phase by institutional investors, including Strategy, Metaplanet, and BlackRock. Metaplanet alone has amassed 10,000 BTC, while BlackRock’s portfolio now exceeds $70 billion in Bitcoin holdings.

Such movements suggest a shift from short-term trading to long-term storage, reducing selling pressure and potentially stabilizing the market. Additionally, spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted net inflows totaling $128.18 billion, further underscoring institutional confidence. These developments highlight a maturing market where large investors are positioning themselves ahead of anticipated price appreciation.

Power Law Model Aligns with AVIV Ratio, Projecting a $220,000 to $330,000 Price Range

Complementing the AVIV Ratio analysis, Bitcoin researcher Sminston With’s power law model, which incorporates a 365-day simple moving average, projects a similar price target range between $220,000 and $330,000 for this market cycle. The model demonstrates a strong correlation (R²=0.96) with historical price data, suggesting that Bitcoin’s price could experience a 100% to 200% increase from current levels near $104,000.

With’s model challenges the notion of diminishing volatility in Bitcoin markets, highlighting persistent significant price swings that deviate from the trendline. While the model is optimistic, it is based on only four market cycles, which warrants a degree of caution. Nonetheless, this aligns with other market indicators, such as CoinGlass’s bull market peak metrics, which also suggest further upside potential without immediate signs of a cycle top.

Market Indicators Support Continued Bullish Momentum

Additional metrics, including the Pi Cycle Top and MVRV ratios, reinforce the view that Bitcoin’s bull market remains intact. Despite recent price corrections, these indicators have not flagged an imminent market peak, suggesting that the current upward trend may persist. This is consistent with the observed institutional accumulation and the AVIV Ratio’s position, collectively painting a picture of sustained bullish momentum.

Investors should remain attentive to these technical signals and institutional behaviors as they navigate the evolving market landscape, balancing optimism with prudent risk management.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s AVIV Ratio and power law model analyses converge on a potential cycle top price between $220,000 and $330,000, supported by significant institutional accumulation and robust market indicators. While historical patterns and technical metrics suggest considerable upside remains, investors should monitor evolving market dynamics carefully. The interplay of active capitalization, realized value, and strategic holdings underscores a maturing Bitcoin market poised for substantial growth, yet tempered by inherent volatility and the need for cautious optimism.