$330,000 Bitcoin : Realistic Or Overhyped ?

What if Bitcoin hasn’t reached its peak yet ? While markets digest their recent fluctuations, a projection based on historical signals puts the bullish cycle into perspective. According to a technical analysis supported by the AVIV ratio, a little-known behavioral indicator, Bitcoin could reach up to $330,000. Analyst Gert van Lagen links this hypothesis to sustained accumulation dynamics, indicating that the current bull run may be far from over.

A statistical indicator points to $330,000

While whales accumulate and small holders flee out of fear , market technician Gert van Lagen recently highlighted on X a metric called the AVIV Ratio (Active Value to Invested Value), which measures the ratio between Bitcoin’s active capitalization, i.e., funds in motion, and its actual invested capitalization, excluding mining rewards.

According to him, this indicator, when it exceeds its threshold of +3 standard deviations (σ) above its historical average, systematically marks a cycle peak. He points out that this was the case during previous peaks : “BTC was worth $1,200 in 2013, nearly $20,000 in 2017, and about $69,000 in 2021”.

However, to date, the AVIV Ratio has not yet crossed this threshold, leading him to estimate that “the price could climb to at least $330,000 in this cycle before a top is reached”.

Van Lagen’s model draws attention for its ability to capture the imbalance between speculative activity and long-term investments. It is based on well-defined historical precedents. Here are the key points to remember :

• The AVIV Ratio has not yet crossed the critical +3σ threshold, often correlated with a market top ;

• Historically, this crossing preceded the major peaks of 2013, 2017, and 2021 ;

• Today, the ratio remains below this level, suggesting significant residual bullish potential ;

• Van Lagen points out, however, that “the predictive accuracy of the ratio is not yet validated in all market contexts” ;

• Market volatility remains an important adjustment variable, potentially biasing signal interpretation.

This ratio, although still little known in mainstream circles, establishes itself as an interesting alternative tool to monitor the ongoing bullish cycle, complementing more traditional indicators.

Institutional accumulation and the power law model

Alongside technical signals, another phenomenon is attracting analysts’ attention : the decline in Bitcoin balances on OTC desks (over-the-counter), often used by institutional investors to buy or sell large volumes.

According to CryptoQuant data , these balances have dropped from 166,500 BTC to 137,400 BTC this year, a decrease of over 29,000 BTC in a few months. This marked decline is interpreted as a strategic accumulation move.

Moreover, this decline is mainly due to “Strategy’s aggressive buying” as well as the notable entry of Metaplanet, which acquired 10,000 BTC. Added to this are strong inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, whose cumulative net value now amounts to $128.18 billion, and BlackRock’s BTC holdings, estimated at more than $70 billion.

Alongside this silent accumulation, a second predictive model developed by Bitcoin researcher Sminston With strengthens the hypothesis of a high cycle peak. Based on a 365-day simple moving average integrated into a power law model, it projects a price between $220,000 and $330,000 for this cycle.

His analysis, statistically supported by a coefficient of determination R²=0.96, challenges the idea that Bitcoin’s volatility diminishes over the years. According to him, “ bitcoin price cycles continue to show significant deviations from the trend, invalidating the idea of a progressively stabilizing market”.

These signals, although optimistic, must be approached with caution. Neither the decline in OTC balances nor the statistical models can guarantee a linear upward trajectory. However, they outline a still dynamic market potentially far from its peak, especially in a context of sustained institutional accumulation, as evidenced by BlackRock’s control of 3 % of the supply . The combination of indicators still far from saturation and a change in behavior among major investors could, if sustained, pave the way to price levels never seen before. The market remains volatile, models remain imperfect, but signals converge: the final phase of this bull run could be more spectacular.