Key takeaways:

  • Avenir Group and Glassnode data conclude that a significant portion of spot BTC ETF inflows are unhedged, long-only positions, indicating genuine institutional conviction rather than reliance on short-term arbitrage strategies.

  • BTC continues to behave like a traditional macro asset with strong correlations to equities, gold and liquidity cycles, while inversely tracking the dollar and high-yield credit spreads.

A new study reveals that a significant portion of spot Bitcoin ( BTC ) ETF inflows is not driven by arbitrage or hedged futures strategies, but by long-term, unhedged demand from traditional markets, and it is just one layer of a more profound transformation underway.

A collaborative report by Glassnode and Avenir Group mentioned that while the launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs marked a milestone for the crypto market, questions remained whether the influx of capital was authentic or merely the result of basis trades exploiting price differences between CME futures and spot markets.

Unhedged spot Bitcoin ETF flows show BTC is now a macro asset image 0 Unhedged demand for spot Bitcoin ETF. Source: Glassnode/ Avenir Group

It was assumed that all short positions in CME Bitcoin futures from asset managers, dealers and hedge funds are perfectly hedged by ETF holdings. To address this question, a new framework was developed.

Avenir Group researcher Helena Lam and Glassnode analysts UkuriaOC and CryptoVizArt said that despite their strict model that filters out arbitrage activity, data reveals a strong correlation between unhedged demand and spot Bitcoin ETF inflows. This indicates that much of the capital entering ETFs reflects genuine, directional exposure, suggesting that institutional investors aren’t merely probing the market, but are committing with conviction.

The analysts said that the steady rise in spot ETF holdings signals a structural change in Bitcoin’s market profile. Bitcoin is increasingly being treated as an institutional asset. This shift brings more stable capital, improved liquidity, and signs of a maturing market.

Related: Bitcoin hashrate down ~15% since June 15, steepest drop in 3 years

Bitcoin’s identity crisis is over

Beyond spot ETF flows, the study noted that Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like a macro asset, with its performance now closely tied to broader financial conditions. Data shows growing positive correlations with traditional risk-on assets such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq and gold, while inversely tracking the US Dollar Index and credit stress indicators like high-yield spreads.

Unhedged spot Bitcoin ETF flows show BTC is now a macro asset image 1 Bitcoin’s correlation with assets and macro indicators. Source: Glassnode/Avenir Group

Its responsiveness to the Global Liquidity Index (GLI) further highlights this shift as Bitcoin rallies during expanding liquidity and falters when financial conditions tighten.

Supporting this evolving trend, André Dragosch, the head of research at Bitwise Europe, highlighted the connection between the global money supply and Bitcoin’s price.

While cautioning against using global liquidity measures for short-term predictions, the analyst noted that “statistical evidence suggests a long-run relationship,” estimating that every $1 trillion increase in global money supply could translate to a $13,861 rise in Bitcoin’s price. 

Related: Anthony Pompliano’s crypto venture buys $386M in Bitcoin

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.