Will Bitcoin retrace as “apparent demand” signal flips negative?

Bitcoin’s recent price rebound has brought the asset closer to its record highs, but a new on-chain signal may be flashing caution. 

According to a June 29 analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Crazzyblockk, Bitcoin’s ( BTC ) “apparent demand” signal has turned negative, indicating that new buyer interest is no longer keeping pace with the supply entering the market from miners and long-term holders.

Apparent demand is a metric that compares new buyer interest to the supply entering the market. Specifically, it looks at how much fresh demand is coming in relative to two main sources of supply; the newly mined Bitcoin and long-term holders moving their coins after a period of dormancy. 

Strong demand offsets this supply and helps push prices higher. A price imbalance may result when apparent demand turns negative, which indicates that new buyers are no longer consuming the available supply. In this case, selling by LTHs, who are often regarded as seasoned, strategic market participants, may suggest that the current price range is a local peak.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $108,190, up 0.8% in the past 24 hours. The price has moved between $100,546 and $108,706 in the last seven days and currently sits 3% below its all-time high of $111,814 set on May 22.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is still trading in the upper range of its Bollinger Bands, and the price closing above the 20-day moving average indicates short-term bullish momentum. However, there’s still a lot of resistance in the $109,000–$110,000 range.

Bitcoin price analysis. Credit: crypto.news

At 56.89, the relative strength index is neutral but on the verge of becoming overbought. Bullish control would be re-established with a breakout above $111,000, but a rejection and decline below $105,000 might signal a more significant pullback toward $101,000.

Looking ahead, macroeconomic events could have a significant impact on how prices move in the coming days. Traders will be paying close attention to what central bank leaders have to say at the European Central Bank forum this week.

Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair,  is scheduled to speak on Tuesday, July 1, alongside his counterparts from the UK, South Korea, and Japan. While Powell recently told lawmakers that the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates, political pressure is mounting. U.S. President Donald Trump criticized Powell for keeping rates “artificially high” on a June 29 interview.

In the absence of strong apparent demand and unfavourable macroeconomic projectoons, Bitcoin may struggle to power through resistance without fresh catalysts.