Traders Bet on Strong Bitcoin and Ethereum Movement in July

• Bitcoin and Ethereum volatility fell in June
• Options signal bullishness for ETH above $3.000
• Expectations of Fed decision impact crypto assets

With implied volatility dropping in June, traders are positioning themselves for potential bigger price moves in Bitcoin and Ethereum during July. Data from on-chain options platform Derive.xyz indicates that there is a buildup of positions betting on significant breakouts, especially in Ether.

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The current volatility surface, following the recent price surge, shows a pattern where Call IV has remained largely unchanged, while ATM and Put IV are relatively elevated. This mainly reflects the overall rise in… pic.twitter.com/dud0Cx7KQq

— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) July 3, 2025

During the Middle East tensions, Bitcoin briefly fell below $100 but recovered to $107. Ethereum remained close to $2.600, with a single significant drop to $2.200 amid fears of armed conflict. With the ceasefire announced, markets stabilized.

Thirty-day implied volatility has declined, with BTC down from 30% to 44%, while ETH has fallen from 36% to 68%. Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive, said the lack of extreme volatility spikes suggests that traders correctly anticipated a containment of hostilities. “The subdued response in monthly volatility suggests that traders correctly anticipated that hostilities would be contained,” he said.

Now, the market's focus turns to macroeconomic data and monetary policy in the United States. The latest employment report showed an unemployment rate of 4,1%, below expectations, reducing the chances of a rate cut in the near term. CME FedWatch estimates a 95% probability of the policy rate being left unchanged at the next FOMC meeting.

On Derive, the options market is projecting a potential rally for ETH, with nearly 80% of open interest in July calls above $3.000, with about 30% positioned above $3.500. Dawson points out that Robinhood’s plans to launch tokenized stocks and a layer 2 on Arbitrum could be a bullish catalyst for Ethereum. “ETH has the strongest momentum narrative,” he said.

Meanwhile, in the case of Bitcoin, traders are concentrating between calls at $130.000 and puts in the $85.000 range, reflecting expectations for a decisive price move later this month.