JPMorgan Chase Warns US Consumers Will Shoulder 60% of Tariff Costs – But Yale Predicts It Will Be Higher

Banking behemoth JPMorgan Chase says the higher tariffs that President Donald Trump imposed on America’s trading partners will mostly affect US consumers. 

In a CNBC interview, JPMorgan Asset Management global markets strategist Meera Pandit  says  consumers will bear a larger share of tariff costs, carrying more of the financial burden than businesses.

“We’re expecting that around 60% of the overall cost of tariffs gets passed on to the consumer, and the companies retain about 40% of that, but certainly, it will be carrying the load on both sides.”

But the Yale Budget Lab, which provides analysis of federal policy proposals for the American economy, predicts that the tariff costs on the consuming public will be much higher based on historical data. 

The Budget Lab’s director of economics, Ernie Tedeschi, says  businesses may initially share the burden with consumers, but expects the balance to shift over time.

“I actually expect the consumer pass-through effect to rise gradually from here over time, from that 50% to 70% to probably something closer to 80% to 90% after several more months…

I think early on, businesses bear more of the costs as they sort of feel out what sort of pricing power they have, where tariff policy is going and then over time, they pass more and more of that cost on to consumers.”

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