Bitget App
Trade smarter
Buy cryptoMarketsTradeFuturesEarnWeb3SquareMore
Trade
Spot
Buy and sell crypto with ease
Margin
Amplify your capital and maximize fund efficiency
Onchain
Going Onchain, without going Onchain!
Convert
Zero fees, no slippage
Explore
Launchhub
Gain the edge early and start winning
Copy
Copy elite trader with one click
Bots
Simple, fast, and reliable AI trading bot
Trade
USDT-M Futures
Futures settled in USDT
USDC-M Futures
Futures settled in USDC
Coin-M Futures
Futures settled in cryptocurrencies
Explore
Futures guide
A beginner-to-advanced journey in futures trading
Futures promotions
Generous rewards await
Overview
A variety of products to grow your assets
Simple Earn
Deposit and withdraw anytime to earn flexible returns with zero risk
On-chain Earn
Earn profits daily without risking principal
Structured Earn
Robust financial innovation to navigate market swings
VIP and Wealth Management
Premium services for smart wealth management
Loans
Flexible borrowing with high fund security
Bitcoin Traders Beware: Record BTC Futures Leverage Sets Stage for Wild Price Swings

Bitcoin Traders Beware: Record BTC Futures Leverage Sets Stage for Wild Price Swings

CryptopotatoCryptopotato2025/08/12 16:00
By:Author: Wayne Jones

A mix of extreme futures leverage, tight technical ranges, and capital shifts toward altcoins leaves BTC’s near-term outlook uncertain.

Bitcoin’s derivatives market is flashing its loudest warning signal in five years as traders pile into highly leveraged positions.

According to analyst Axel Adler Jr., August’s 30-day change in the Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) went above +0.4 for the first time since 2020, a level that has historically come before periods of volatile price moves and sudden liquidations.

Elevated Risk as Market Awaits Macro Catalyst

The ELR spike comes with BTC hovering near record territory towards $120,000, setting the stage for potentially more violent swings should the market tip in either direction.

“This indicates a rapid and large-scale influx of leveraged positions in futures while the price remains near historical highs,” Adler posted on X, warning that such positioning often leaves the market vulnerable to “sharp liquidations.”

Bitcoin started the week on strong footing, briefly touching $122,000 on August 11 before reversing below $118,500 later that day.

The price has since retraced its steps near the all-time-high level, trading at $119,169 at press time, up 0.4% in the last 24 hours. Over the past week, the OG crypto has climbed 4.4%, while its monthly gain sits at 2.6%. It is roughly 3.1% off its all-time high above $123,000 set on July 14.

Technically, BTC is consolidating within an ascending triangle, with the Ichimoku Cloud offering near-term support, according to chart analysis from The Crypto Express. However, traders are eyeing the horizontal supply zone above as a hurdle; a confirmed breakout or breakdown could dictate the next major move.

Altcoin Strength Erodes Bitcoin’s Market Share

While Bitcoin’s price has held relatively steady, its dominance is currently at 57.5% per CoinGecko, up slightly after slipping to 55% earlier, the lowest since January, following Ethereum’s 8% pump on August 13 to $4,670, just shy of its own ATH.

Analysts say the slide in the number one cryptocurrency’s market share is a hint of an early-stage altcoin season, especially if the trend deepens toward 50%.

For now, market sentiment is mixed, with CoinMarketCap’s altseason index at 37 out of 100, while Blockchain Center’s gauge shows a more aggressive 53 reading.

The convergence of historically high futures leverage, technical compression, and shifting capital flows toward altcoins leaves Bitcoin’s short-term outlook finely balanced. If history is any guide, the coming days could deliver either a decisive breakout or a painful shakeout for overleveraged traders.

0

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

PoolX: Earn new token airdrops
Lock your assets and earn 10%+ APR
Lock now!

You may also like

US Treasury mulls digital ID verification in DeFi to curb illicit finance

Share link:In this post: The United States Treasury is looking into the possibility of using digital identity to check illicit financial activities in the DeFi sector. The agency is entertaining public comment on the issue, and it is expected to close by October 17. United States banks have warned of stablecoin yield, noting that it could disrupt the American credit system.

Cryptopolitan2025/08/17 18:20
US Treasury mulls digital ID verification in DeFi to curb illicit finance

Markets brace for a heavy data week, Fed’s Powell in focus

Share link:In this post: After Trump’s failed Alaska summit with Putin, Zelensky heads to Washington. Markets await July minutes and Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, with pressure mounting for rate cuts. Flash PMI figures from the US and globally will reveal how Trump’s new tariffs are rippling.

Cryptopolitan2025/08/17 18:20
Markets brace for a heavy data week, Fed’s Powell in focus

Trump axes August trade talks with India after summit with Putin

Share link:In this post: Trump canceled U.S.-India trade talks scheduled for August 25–29 after meeting with Putin. New tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods will begin on August 27 due to India’s Russian oil imports. Modi responded with nationalist economic reforms, promising tax changes and domestic chip production.

Cryptopolitan2025/08/17 18:20
Trump axes August trade talks with India after summit with Putin

Japan to approve yen-backed stablecoins for first time this fall

Share link:In this post: Japan will approve yen-backed stablecoins this fall, starting with fintech firm JPYC. JPYC tokens will be backed by bank deposits and Japanese government bonds. Profits from the bonds stay with the issuer; users won’t earn interest.

Cryptopolitan2025/08/17 18:20
Japan to approve yen-backed stablecoins for first time this fall