6 Valuation Methods Evaluation: Can Ethereum Reach $10,000 in This Cycle?

Original Title: "Can Ethereum Reach $10,000 in This Cycle? 6 Valuation Methods Explained"

Original Source: Biteye

ETH has been rebounding since the April low and is currently hovering around $4,500.

If 2024 was the year when the Bitcoin ETF ignited the bull market, then 2025 might be Ethereum's turn.

This article uses 6 valuation methods to break down whether ETH can break through the $10,000 mark!

1/8  ETH/BTC Ratio

First, let's compare ETH and BTC for relative valuation.

In the long term, the ETH/BTC ratio has been quite stable, but the current ratio is only 0.0372, placing it at a historical low position in the last 5 years, indicating that ETH may currently be "undervalued."

Based on the past five years' average ETH/BTC ratio of 0.0518, assuming BTC remains around $120,000, the corresponding ETH price would be $6,214.

If we calculate based on the ETH/BTC ratio of 0.06-0.08 from the last bull market cycle, still assuming BTC remains around $120,000, the corresponding ETH price would be $7,200-$9,600.

2/8  Ethereum ETF and Institutional Holdings

With the surge in ETH price, off-exchange funds have poured into Ethereum ETFs. Many people overlook the actual impact of Ethereum ETFs and institutional buying, which not only boosts sentiment but also brings significant buy-side pressure.

According to @SoSoValueCrypto data, Ethereum spot ETF has reached a new all-time high, with a net inflow of $1.019 billion on August 11 in Eastern Time. The current net asset value of the Ethereum spot ETF is $25.712 billion, with holdings of approximately 6 million ETH, accounting for 4.96% of the current ETH circulating supply.

Compared to BTC's ETF percentage of 6.48%, there is still room for growth. In addition, 70 Ethereum reserve entities currently hold about 3.49 million ETH, accounting for 2.89% of the ETH circulating supply. BMNR has publicly stated its goal to eventually hold 5% of the global Ethereum circulating supply. After deducting the staked amount of 36.17 million ETH, the freely circulating supply is only around 75.10 million ETH.

The following price estimate is based on a simple assumption: the proportion by which the free float decreases will increase the price per coin by the same proportion.

In other words, New Price = Current Price × (Target Free Float / Current Free Float)

If we consider ETFs and institutional reserves as a single entity, they currently hold 7.85% of the total supply. Assuming this percentage increases to 10% in the future, and the staking lockup ratio remains relatively unchanged, the free float will shrink to approximately 72.52 million coins, corresponding to a mechanistic price increase to around $4647; if it rises to 15%, it would reach around $5070; if it rises to 20%, it would approach $6000.

This calculation does not yet consider the demand-side amplification effect, so the actual increase in price may be even higher. Additionally, incremental funds from ETFs and institutions usually take some time to settle, meaning that the ETH price center will be gradually and steadily pushed up over the long term, rather than experiencing a short-term spike.

3/8  Metcalfe's Law

Many people discussing ETH valuation often focus on price fluctuations and hot narratives, overlooking the long-term support of network value by on-chain activity. Metcalfe's Law states that a network's value is proportional to the square of its active user count. Applied to Ethereum, it can be expressed as Network Value ≈ k × (Daily Active Addresses)².

A simple interpretation is that "the more users, the more valuable the network," and exponential growth in the number of users will lead to exponential growth in market capitalization.

According to BitInfoCharts data, on August 13, 2025, the Ethereum mainnet had approximately 971,486 Daily Active Addresses (DAA) in the past 24 hours, with the current ETH price around $4500, a total circulation of about 120.7 million coins, and a market cap of around $543.1 billion. By plugging into the formula, the current coefficient k ≈ 0.576 (USD/address²).

With this k value, we can estimate prices in different activity scenarios:

If DAA increases to 1 million, the price would be around $4768 (+6%)

If DAA increases to 1.1 million, the price would be around $5769 (+28.2%)

If we optimistically assume 1.3 million (close to the historical high of 90%), the price would be around $8058 (+79.1%)

This estimate assumes that the staking amount and circulating supply remain relatively stable. An increase in activity will directly amplify the network's value, thereby raising the price per ETH. Unlike ETF and institutional buy-side pressure, the Metcalfe approach reflects the organic growth of on-chain usage and economic activity. It does not rely on external fund inflows but rather accumulates compound interest based on network effects.

Please note, once activity resonates with the on-chain fundamentals — increasing on-chain transactions, rising fees, warming gas burn — coupled with the ETF and institutional chip withdrawal effect, ETH's price will be simultaneously driven by the forces of supply contraction and network expansion, and the upward momentum may far exceed predictions based on a single factor.

4/8 NVT Model

NVT is essentially like a "crypto PE ratio." Given a reasonable NVT multiple (based on historical ranges) and future daily transaction volume, one can reverse-calculate market cap and price.

NVT = Market Cap (USD) / Daily On-chain Transaction Volume (USD), which computes to the current NVT = 518B / 14B = 37

ETH's NVT has historically been in the range of 60–110, currently positioned below historical averages. Assuming the NVT multiples are within the reasonable range of 60/80/90/100/110 over 6–12 months; daily on-chain transaction volume (USD) is estimated to range from 7B to 14B.

6-month Scenario

· Conservative: NVT 70, daily volume $7B → Market Cap ≈ $490B → Price ≈ $4,059

· Base Case: NVT 80, daily volume $9B → Market Cap ≈ $720B → Price ≈ $5,965

· Optimistic: NVT 90, daily volume $12B → Market Cap ≈ $1,080B → Price ≈ $8,947

12-month Scenario

· Conservative: NVT 75, daily volume $8B → Market Cap ≈ $600T → Price ≈ $4,971

· Base Case: NVT 90, daily volume $10B → Market Cap ≈ $900T → Price ≈ $7,456

· Optimistic: NVT 100, daily volume $14B → Market Cap ≈ $1,400T → Price ≈ $11,598

In other words, ETH's network effects are underpinning a valuation floor of $5,000–$12,000.

5/8 On-chain Cash Flow Model

The on-chain "revenue" generated by the Ethereum protocol (fees + MEV, etc.) is considered as cash flow, measuring network value. As the Ethereum application ecosystem expands, the network's "revenue" growth can enhance ETH valuation.

Asset management company VanEck predicts that by 2025, with the introduction of Ethereum staking rewards into ETFs and other favorable factors, the price of ETH is expected to reach nearly $6,000. As early as in their 2023 report, VanEck had already provided a valuation of ETH, assuming continued growth in on-chain fees and usage, with the model suggesting that by 2030, ETH could rise to around $11,800. Refer to the chart below:

6/8 Candlestick Technical Analysis

@CryptoPainter_X believes that although ETH is currently facing some historical selling pressure from the 2021 highs supply zone, the price structure on the 4-hour timeframe is gradually rising with higher lows, showing no significant breakdown.

From the ASR channel perspective, ETH's price is oscillating upwards above the orange average pressure zone, indicating a strong trend where market demand is gradually absorbing the supply near historical highs.

There are signs of a breakout above the daily ASR channel's average pressure zone. The last similar breakout occurred in early 2024, and if this breakout succeeds, the daily target may directly hit the daily overbought line (around $5,600).

Another possibility is a repeat of the 2024 year-end trend, encountering extreme resistance on the upper boundary of the orange channel.

Overall, the current situation still looks optimistic, with the possibility of ETH's price reaching $6,000 in the medium term.

7/8 Crypto Analyst Scenario Analysis

Some crypto analysts and media outlets have provided a series of scenario-based price forecasts for ETH:

1. Crypto analyst @VirtualBacon0x believes that ETH has entered a new cycle of a macro bull market. In the base scenario, by the end of 2025, ETH is expected to rise to the $6,000-$7,000 range, with a long-term target around $10,000 in mid-2026. In an extremely optimistic scenario with widespread market enthusiasm, where BTC hits $200,000 and ETH outperforms, Virtual Bacon estimates that ETH could potentially spike to $16,000.

2. Wall Street analyst Tom Lee mentioned in a July Bankless podcast that in the short term, ETH should at least rebound to $4,000; and by the end of 2025, ETH rising to $7,000, even reaching $12,000 or $15,000, is reasonable.

3. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has set a target price of around $10,000 for ETH by the end of 2025, indicating an optimistic bull market scenario. In his article in July 2025, he emphasized that the U.S. policy shift towards credit expansion will bring significant liquidity, coupled with Western institutions renewing interest in Ethereum. These macro factors will be key catalysts driving ETH's price up.

4. Crypto media Bankless has put forward an extremely bullish scenario projecting ETH to potentially reach $15,000 in 2025. In their annual outlook, they mentioned that new drivers like the artificial intelligence craze could spark a new wave of crypto market frenzy, allowing the Ethereum price to reach the five-digit range in this optimistic scenario. Assumptions behind this include ample market liquidity, narrative trends (such as AI+Crypto), and Ethereum's continued dominant position in the DeFi space.

8/8 Editor's Summary

Considering seven valuation methods, ETH has a good chance of reaching the $6,000-$8,000 range in 2025. If market sentiment is extremely positive and on-chain activities continue to grow, breaking $10,000 is not impossible, and in an extremely optimistic scenario, prices could reach the $12,000-$15,000 range.

This is not just "market speculation" but a collective interpretation of on-chain data, fund behavior, and macro liquidity. Whether ETH truly reaches $10,000 or not, as the foundation of the crypto ecosystem, it has firmly established itself in a multi-valued pricing system.