Cardano’s Case for a 200% Rally: ETF Odds, Whale Activity, and Golden Cross

Cardano (ADA) is drawing strong attention from investors. Multiple signals, both technical and on-chain, suggest a major rally may be on the horizon.

Recently, Cardano reclaimed the $1 mark for the first time in over five months. Could this be when ADA transitions from a promising altcoin to the centerpiece of the entire crypto market?

Multiple Bullish Signals for Cardano

Several factors could drive this latest surge in Cardano (ADA). Notably, the likelihood of an ADA-based ETF being approved is rising significantly, with the probability estimated at up to 80%.

ADA broke $1 mark. Source: TradingView

At the same time, Grayscale has officially filed for an HBAR & ADA ETF, potentially opening the door for institutional capital to flow into Cardano.

Data from TapTools also shows that futures traders on Hyperliquid are currently more bullish on ADA than on XRP, Solana, ETH, and BTC. In addition, the Cardano network has surpassed 3.1 million ADA-holding wallets, showing the project’s appeal to the global investor community.

Futures traders on Hyperliquid are currently bullish on ADA. Source: TapTools

Technical Analysis and On-Chain Data Reinforce Bullish Outlook

Technically, ADA is at a crucial threshold, and many experts believe a breakout is imminent. Analyst Ali forecasts that ADA could surge to $1.50 if it breaks through current resistance levels.

Ali also notes that the current price structure mirrors the previous cycle—albeit moving more slowly—suggesting this could be the early stage of an explosive rally.

ADA price projection. Source: Ali

In particular, a “Golden Cross” signal is forming when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average. According to another analyst, the last time this signal appeared, ADA rallied by 230%, and if a similar scenario unfolds, the price could reach $3 in less than a month.

Furthermore, Tom Crown predicts a potential 232% rally to $1.687 if the Golden Cross completes.

Golden Cross signal on the ADA chart. Source: Deezy

On-chain data further strengthens the bullish case. According to analysis from Alphractal, long-term investors have consistently accumulated ADA since 2021 without significant distribution.

Meanwhile, short-term investors have shown a slight accumulation trend in recent days.

Recently, whales have also purchased over 200 million ADA, signaling high confidence from large-cap holders. Risk-adjusted return metrics also trend upward, reflecting increased profit potential amid controlled volatility.

Adjusted Sharpe ratio. Source: Alphractal 

“Long-term holders remain strong and are still accumulating. Short-term selling pressure is low. Risk and temperature metrics do not yet signal market euphoria. Rising adjusted Sharpe Ratio could be a sign of strong upcoming moves for ADA Cardano.” Alphractal concluded

Bringing these factors together, Cardano stands at a pivotal moment. If favorable conditions converge, ADA could fully reclaim its all-time high and open a new chapter in Cardano’s journey in 2025.