- Bitcoin dominance shows its first bearish MACD cross since 2020, with support breaking below 64%.
- The Altcoin Season Index climbed from 36 last week to 47, nearing neutral ground.
- Altcoin market capitalization increased from under $1.2 trillion in June to above $1.7 trillion in August.
Bitcoin dominance on the monthly chart has recorded a bearish MACD cross, its first since August 2020. Market data shows that such formations have previously aligned with major shifts favoring altcoins.
Historical Market Movements and Current Structure
In 2017, Rekt Fencer’s observation indicates that Bitcoin dominance declined sharply while altcoins recorded gains ranging from 50x to 200x. The decline followed a bearish MACD cross, confirmed by a strong downward trend in the histogram. Liquidity moved away from Bitcoin into alternative assets, defining that cycle’s performance.
Source: XThree years later, in 2020, the same pattern emerged. Bitcoin dominance again printed a bearish cross in August. During the following months, mid- and low-cap tokens surged between 20x and 50x. At the same time, large-cap assets advanced nearly 10x. The dominance index charted another extended decline, reinforcing the cycle correlation.
In 2025, the indicator has once again turned downward. The cross appears below 64%, a level marked by descending resistance on the dominance chart. The shaded projection zone points to a potential continued drop. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram has shifted negative, mirroring earlier phases. Previous cycles with these conditions coincided with sustained altcoin rallies lasting several months.
Altcoin Season Index Climbs Toward Neutral Zone
Tracking the current altseason index positioning, CoinMarketCap data reveals that The CMC Altcoin Season Index has moved higher in recent weeks, reaching 47 out of 100. The measure now reflects a balanced position between Bitcoin season and altcoin season, according to market data tracked over the past ninety days.
Source: CoinMarketCapThe index recorded 44 yesterday, 36 last week, and 38 last month, showing consistent upward progress. This gradual climb indicates that altcoins have been gaining momentum relative to Bitcoin during the past thirty days. On a yearly view, the highest reading was 87 on December 4, 2024, which represented a dominant altcoin season. The lowest reading occurred on April 26, 2025, when the index reached 12, reflecting a period driven by Bitcoin.
Alongside index changes, the total altcoin market capitalization expanded. Since late June, capitalization has risen from below $1.2 trillion to more than $1.7 trillion in August. The chart also shows that increases in altcoin capitalization consistently align with upward movements in the index. With the index now positioned near 50, conditions remain below the 75 threshold that defines a full altcoin season.
