Institutional Bet Amid $161M SUI Unlocks: Will Buyers Hold?

SUI, the native token of the Sui blockchain network, is drawing heightened scrutiny as it approaches a key 308-day compression event, with analysts and investors debating its potential trajectory. The token currently trades at $3.49, having gained 2% since Wednesday morning and outpacing the broader crypto market’s 1.5% increase [1]. Despite this recent rally, SUI has seen a 19% drop over the past month, reflecting broader volatility in the Layer 1 sector [1].

SUI’s circulating supply stands at 3.5 billion tokens, representing 35% of the max supply of 10 billion. With a market capitalization of $12.25 billion and a fully diluted valuation of $34.89 billion, the token has seen a 334.89% increase in price over the past year [1]. However, its all-time high of $5.35, reached in January 2025, remains a distant peak, with the current price down by 35% from that level [1].

The token is now facing a critical phase as more than $998 million in token unlocks are scheduled to hit the market between August 25 and August 31, with SUI leading the list at $161 million in unlocks—1.2% of its total supply [2]. This liquidity event, which includes both one-off and linear unlocks, could add significant selling pressure to the market, especially given recent bearish trends in the broader crypto space [2].

Analysts have been closely monitoring SUI’s performance ahead of these unlocks. The token has shown a relatively strong buyer-seller ratio of 69%, with 2,641 buyers and 1,300 sellers recorded in the last 24 hours [1]. Despite this, the past week has seen a 1.29% decline in price, with SUI struggling to reclaim its former levels [1]. Institutional adoption has, however, remained robust, with Swiss digital asset bank Sygnum launching regulated custody, trading, and lending products for SUI in August 2025 [1].

Mill City Ventures, a major SUI treasury, has also been active in the market. The firm completed a $450 million SUI token purchase in July 2025 and has continued to add to its holdings, including an additional $20 million in August [1]. This institutional backing highlights growing confidence in SUI’s long-term potential, even as short-term volatility persists.

The Sui ecosystem has also shown signs of expansion. In August 2025, Matrixdock launched tokenized gold on the Sui blockchain, with XAUm being the first asset of its kind natively available on the network [1]. The platform has also seen record decentralized finance (DeFi) growth in Q2 2025, with average daily decentralized exchange (DEX) volume reaching $367.9 million and total value locked (TVL) rising 44.3% quarter-on-quarter to $1.76 billion [1].

Despite these positive developments, some analysts have raised concerns about SUI’s short-term outlook. With the 308-day compression nearing, the token is being described as a “ticking time bomb” due to the potential for sudden price swings [2]. The timing of the unlocks, coupled with the token’s current price action, has led to speculation about whether the market will absorb the increased supply without a significant price correction [2].

Looking ahead, the coming weeks will be crucial for SUI as the market tests its resilience. If the token can hold its current price levels and avoid a breakdown, it may signal stronger institutional demand and broader adoption. However, a failure to hold key support levels could trigger a more aggressive sell-off, especially in the face of continued macroeconomic uncertainty and heightened market volatility.

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