JPMorgan Calls Bitcoin Value Undervalued, Could Hit $1,26,000

JPMorgan’s forecast that Bitcoin’s fair value could reach $126,000 by 2025 is striking not just for the number itself but for what it signals. Bitcoin Value reflects how far institutional thinking has shifted. A bank that once dismissed Bitcoin now treats it as an asset class worth modeling against gold. That change alone says a lot about where the market is heading.

Bitcoin Volatility Hits Record Lows

The most important driver here is Bitcoin Volatility. Six months ago, volatility sat close to 60 percent. Today, it is around 30 percent, the lowest level ever. At that level, Bitcoin value trades at only twice the volatility of gold, the narrowest gap in history. This low volatility makes an asset more predictable. It reduces risk and makes large investors more comfortable adding exposure. If volatility continues to compress, Bitcoin moves closer to behaving like digital gold rather than a speculative token.

Another shift comes from the adoption of Corporate Treasury. Treasuries are treating Bitcoin as a Strategic Reserve, locking away supply that might otherwise trade. Corporate treasuries now hold more than 6 percent of all Bitcoin value. That’s close to one million coins worth over $110 billion, a 347 percent increase since 2022. Removing that much supply from the market naturally reduces price swings and creates stronger floors when sentiment turns negative.

ETF Inflows Fuel Demand and Stabilize Bitcoin Value

ETF Inflows add a second stabilizing layer. In 2025 alone, inflows have reached $14.8 billion, already above 2024 levels. BlackRock’s fund now controls over $58 billion in assets. More than $82.5 billion in institutional money has flowed into ETFs this year. The structure is important. ETFs let investors buy Bitcoin exposure on familiar exchanges. That makes it easier for pensions, endowments, and cautious institutions to take part. This steady flow of funds builds constant demand. It also helps hold up the price when the market dips.

Bitcoin Value Seen as Digital Gold

JPMorgan’s fair value estimate is rooted in a comparison with gold. Gold attracts about $5 trillion in private investment, while Bitcoin stands at $2.2 trillion. Adjusting for volatility, the bank argues Bitcoin should trade at $126,000. By that model, Bitcoin value is undervalued by roughly $16,000 today. The calculation is simple, but the implication is big: Bitcoin doesn’t need extreme speculation to climb higher, only convergence with gold on risk-adjusted terms.

Bitcoin Reserves Across the Globe

Governments are also shaping this story. The United States now holds almost 200,000 Bitcoin as part of a Strategic Reserve built from seized assets. El Salvador keeps adding to its 6,000 Bitcoin holdings despite scaling back legal tender ambitions. Bhutan has mined between 12,000 and 13,000 Bitcoin using hydroelectric power, a stockpile of Bitcoin valued at up to $1.3 billion or nearly 28 percent of its GDP. Japan is rolling out both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, while Brazil is considering a sovereign reserve.

Portfolio Diversifier Points through Bitcoin

On the corporate side, the MicroStrategy playbook is spreading. Metaplanet, once a hotel operator, now holds more than 18,000 Bitcoin, with its stock up over 400 percent. DDC Enterprise added more than 1,000 Bitcoin in just 96 days. These moves highlight how Bitcoin is evolving into a treasury and growth strategy, not just a trading bet.

For individuals, the takeaway is straightforward. Bitcoin is no longer treated as internet money on the fringes. It is increasingly viewed as digital gold, a portfolio diversifier, a corporate treasury asset, and a legitimate vehicle for institutional allocation. The key enabler has been declining Bitcoin Volatility. Without that, the ETF Inflows and Corporate Treasury accumulation would not have the same effect. The cycle is self-reinforcing: adoption reduces volatility, which drives further adoption.

What JPMorgan’s call really captures is the normalization of Bitcoin inside mainstream finance. When a bank of this size acknowledges Bitcoin as a Strategic Reserve candidate alongside gold, it marks a new phase. With low volatility, strong ETF inflows, and corporate balance sheet adoption, the case for institutional growth into 2025 is hard to ignore.